Data Cumbria

Data sources for historic UK wind speed and direction?

2020.10.31 09:57 BigPurpleAki Data sources for historic UK wind speed and direction?

I am trying to find a source for historic wind speed & prevailing direction data, specifically around the location and time of the 1957 Windscale fire in Cumbria UK. I am unsure if such data exists given the time period I need it for, the sources I've searched so far only seem to go back to the mid-70s but it would be a massive help to my undergraduate dissertation if anybody could point me towards a data set.
submitted by BigPurpleAki to weather [link] [comments]

2020.08.14 10:22 northwestopendata Local Council Spending Data

A look at Local Government Expenditure Open Data for 6 Cumbrian District Councils
submitted by northwestopendata to opendata [link] [comments]

2020.08.06 21:52 RMSteve #GEXIV [Cumbria and Lancashire North] RMSteve ends his campaign in Lancaster University

RMSteve begins his drive from his home in Lancaster to Lancaster University, where he has set up his final rally for his campaign in Conference Suite 1 of the university. He arrives and heads backstage, where he shakes hands with the crew members back there. The announcer calls him up: “Ladies and gentlemen, please welcome RMSteve!” He gets on stage to roaring cheers and enthusiastic applause. He waves at the audience and starts speaking while they are still cheering.
“Thank you, thank you! Is this a great team or what?”
Louder cheers from the audience, then they go quiet.
“First, I’d like to thank my campaign team and the staff here at Lancaster University for hosting us in this final rally, they’ve really done a great work to accommodate us all today, so thank you.”
The audience applauds as RMSteve shakes hands with the administrator of Lancaster University.
“This has been an extraordinary campaign. I’ve known Lancaster as my home for many years, but now I can confidently state that all of Cumbria and Lancashire North is my home and all of its people are my family. Over these last few days, I have traveled across the lengths of this constituency and have met with people, ordinary people, people trying to do good work and earn money and provide for their families. I have met with these people, and I have assured them that, as their MP, I will be the best advocate for them and their causes in Westminster than anyone else in the competition.
“I have been drafting plans to benefit the people of this constituency so that they can live better lives. This includes small business reform, increased loans and investment capital for start-up entrepreneurs, lower interest rates for loans, preventing compulsory purchase, expanding data privacy and preventing government surveillance. I am drafting plans and bills to help the people of Cumbria and Lancashire North live richer and more freely as they should be able to in this country. Because that’s what I and my party are here to do: allow the people to live their lives in liberty and prosperity, away from government surveillance, oversight, and bureaucracy.”
“There has been a saying that the voters get the candidate they deserve, and I agree totally. We as candidates and as parliamentarians must strive to be worthy of the people’s vote, must be worthy to be the one who represents them in Parliament. I thank you all for a great campaign and I hope that, in the last few days, I have become the candidate that you deserve. Thank you all, God bless you all, and God Save the Queen!”
RMSteve gets off stage, as the room erupts in thunderous applause, like a tsunami of proud and bold sound crashing onto the stage. He waves at everyone, shakes the hands of some audience members, and walks out. He thanks the staff of the university once more and gets back in his car, heading home, content and euphoric.
submitted by RMSteve to MHoCCampaigning [link] [comments]

2020.08.06 02:59 RMSteve #GEXIV [Cumbria and Lancashire North] RMSteve goes to Carlisle to hold a rally against High Speed Rail plans

RMSteve goes to the city of Carlisle where there are plans to develop the High Speed 2 railway through it. After the announcer welcomes him on stage, he waves to the audience, who erupt in thunderous applause and cheers. The audience quiets down after a minute, and he begins.
“Citizens of Carlisle, my friends, I am RMSteve, and I am campaigning to be the next Member for Parliament for you and the rest of Cumbria and Lancashire North! I am here today to speak on the cursed HS2 plan that has been haunting this city for quite some time. Many people claim that HS2 will be beneficial once it is installed. You wanna know the truth? HS2, in its full form, costs around £100 billion. I’m sure you know who the government expects to pay for this pet project: the common people of this country. Those who are already struggling with mortgages, rents, insurance payments, wages, and so many more fees and dues, part of which the government has imposed on us, off of their meagre revenues from their professions. That money could be better spent on actually funding our crumbling justice system,increasing education standards, investing more into our small businesses and our industries, or, best of all, giving it back to the beleaguered people of the UK in tax refunds. But no. The other parties will do anything to cripple and suffocate the earnings of the common man, but never relieve them.”
“You have probably also heard that HS2 will benefit the environment in the coming future. However, this project will cut through thousands of acres of land, chopping down trees, displacing animal populations, trampling on flora, and the like. They say it will be environmentally-friendly, but I don’t see anything friendly about the brazen destruction of forests and ecosystems for this waste of taxpayers’ money. Even after 120 years, HS2 will produce a net increase in greenhouse gas emissions in terms of operation, so the intended purpose for this project itself is not being accomplished. Moreover, the government will not spare your rightfully owned land if it stands in the way of their programme. They’ll conduct compulsory purchase on your property, and force you to vacate it while throwing a pittance in your face and give no other thought.”
“This is the future of Carlisle and of Cumbria and Lancashire North if the Tory government remains in power. The people of Cumbria should not be forced to foot the bill for a loss making project based on fanciful forecasts with the majority of the benefits going directly to London. This is why we need a proper government that does not waste the money of the people of Cumbria and Lancashire North, does not damage ecosystems and calls their policies “environmentally-friendly”, and does not abruptly take your land without your consent. The LPUK will instead put money in your pocket instead of funding the high speed gravy trade.”
“The people of this constituency need a capable defence, and I am the best for this. I ask you all to vote for me for a capable advocate in those green benches of Westminster on your behalf, fighting for your liberties and fighting against useless programmes that will detriment the people. Thank you, God bless you all, and God Save the Queen!”
RMSteve gets down from the stage to the applause of everyone in the crowd and shakes hands with some of the people in the audience before heading back to his car and driving home.
submitted by RMSteve to MHoCCampaigning [link] [comments]

2020.05.01 12:46 Fwoggie2 Covid-19 update Friday 1st May

Good morning from the UK. It’s Friday 1st May.

Virus statistics

As regular visits to this subreddit will know I’ve been struggling to find the time to crunch the stats whilst running the global supply chain for my COO boss (manufacturing, shipping, ecommerce activities) + looking after my wife (who has bipolar, anxiety and OCD), trying to call my isolated aunt and dad (both in their 70’s and already suffering from depression pre-outbreak although they refuse to seek medical help) + running our household (standard chores, cooking, finances) + setting up our allotment.
Enormous thanks therefore to rkuzsma who has already done the stats today on my behalf here and far more importantly, written me a script to autogenerate them in the future in about 5 seconds flat. It took me about 40 minutes to figure out how to get the script up and running on my computer (I’m a total beginner when it comes to Github) but I got there. Have a platinum award against your post sir and enjoy a month’s worth of Reddit premium on me; your efforts are going to claw back 30-45 minutes a day for me going forward, and to you too temporal_PL who then made it into an even easier to use web page here. Now everyone can have their own stats with their own cut offs whenever they like, you can have some platinum too! :-)

prepdoxx asked two days ago why I’m relying on the Johns Hopkins stats, arguing that a single data point generates a monopoly and makes it unreliable to fully gauge what’s going on. It’s a really great point that deserves a (unfortunately belated) reply; it’s due to 3 factors: did a story on how the Johns Hopkins statistics project came to be here for anyone interested (TLDR; random idea over a coffee one day back in mid January). If anyone hasn’t yet come across the dashboard, you can find it here. As an alternative, no-name-here pointed out a week ago that an alternative source of data (with lots more graphs) is available at ourworldindata here.
Finally, at the risk of sounding like a broken record, any data you do come across (even from reputable sources such as Johns Hopkins) should only be taken as a rough guide of progress of the spread of (and fight against ) the disease only. Reasons:-
1 - shortages of ready-to-use testing kits (and/or ingredients to make the kits) in some countries continue
2 - differences between countries as to testing approaches (who should be tested, when and why)
3 - speed to get test results back vary between countries
4 - People with minor symptoms are unlikely to be tested in multiple countries
5 - Country / individual doctor variances in attributing deaths to Covid-19 (multiple media reports around the world have been flagging up that many of the victims that have died had other underlying medical issues)
6 - Some “victims” are asymptomatic (meaning they’ve caught it but exhibited no symptoms and are thus likely to have evaded detection and thus counting)
7 - Risk of double counting for people who have been given multiple tests.
8 - If your favourite data source demonstrates a downward jolt in new cases/deaths, you should wait for that to become a trend over several days. A one day decline does not mean you’re past peak, especially on Mondays when data is not fully caught up from weekend activity.

Supply chain news in depth

COVID-19 is reshaping the pharmaceutical supply chain - Chemical and Engineering news reports that as of April, the chain remains largely functional and intact. Chinese suppliers are back in operation, and US and European API producers continue to operate without serious impediment. Manufacturers generally keep emergency stocks of ingredients on hand, and most claim they are not yet threatened by a slowdown in deliveries of raw materials. Roger Laforce, a Switzerland-based industry consultant, credits Western producers with making strides in recent years to secure themselves against volatility in supply from Asia, China in particular. “The coronavirus accelerates this, I think, and will have a long-term effect on how supply chain management will be run,” Laforce says.
(Cont’d) As concern mounted in recent years over the possible quality trade-off of low-cost Asian supply, most Western companies steered clear of the worst actors. But there is still a high level of anxiety, according to Luis Gomes, senior vice president of operations at the Portuguese API maker Hovione. Gomes, who chairs the Pharmaceutical Activities Committee of the EFCG, was among the company representatives at the EC (European Commission) hearing in Brussels in December. “As API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredient) suppliers, we are a little bit in the middle,” Gomes says. “We see what is happening with our customers who are generic or branded drug manufacturers, but we also see what is happening at the earliest stage of the supply chain.” China’s dominance in pharmaceutical raw materials and the shift of production of key generic drugs to India, which now supplies 40% of generics to the world market, are front-burner issues for EFCG (European Fine Chemicals Group an association representing API manufacturers), he says. The problem is that lawmakers and the public have exhibited a shocking lack of awareness of the risks, Gomes says. “If for some reason all the energy used in the United States, say, was produced in China, the American people wouldn’t allow it,” he says. “People need to understand that we need to have certain internal capabilities with public medical supply as well.”
(Cont’d) Andrew Badrot, CEO of C2 Pharma, a Luxembourg-based API supplier that outsources manufacturing, sees the US government’s coronavirus response as a turning point in efforts to realign the pharmaceutical supply chain. “In the context of what is happening between the United States and China and Europe, I think nobody has any doubt about China’s ability today to bring the world to its knees should they stop supply of medical devices or raw materials or intermediates for the pharmaceutical industry,” he says. The Trump administration’s penchant for trade wars has shifted the prospect of China weaponizing the drug supply chain from the far fetched to the worrisome, Badrot argues. This year’s initial quarantine in China, he adds, illustrated another way that supply can be cut off. COVID-19 delivered a wake-up call that Badrot says will affect supply chains more than China’s move to close noncompliant manufacturing will. “We need to look at medication on an equivalent level of strategic importance as weapons,” Badrot says. Domestic control of the supply chain is essential, he adds.
Industry executives acknowledge the irony that the very companies that spent the past 20 years outsourcing the supply of chemicals and APIs to China are now asking for support to bring it back. But they dismiss the criticism, responding that capitalist industries have to compete globally on price. Their request for support, they say, aims to establish a more level, competitive playing field.
“We have to deal with the reality that pricing plays an important role in the availability of drugs, primarily if they are generic,” the BPTF’s DiLoreto says (John DiLoreto is an executive director of the Bulk Pharmaceuticals Task Force, an organization of US API producers). “We have to find a way to provide additional incentives for manufacturing to come back to the US. Whatever those financial incentives are, the government will have to start taking it seriously.”

Supply chain news in brief

Good news section

AFOLs (Adult Fans Of LEGO) are certainly busy at present, taking full advantage of being stuck at home and/or furloughed.

NW UK charities have received a lifeline from a generous family who donated more than £300,000 to the battle against coronavirus**.** A total of 14 charities across Cumbria and North Lancashire have received a share of the vital donation, helping them cope with the added strain from the pandemic. The Cumbrian family, who have remained anonymous, handed £310,000 to the Cumbria Community Foundation, which shared the money to groups at risk of collapse because of the crisis. (Link).


Several asked if they can send me $/£/€ via Patreon (in some cases because I've saved them time or money, others for no reason at all). I don't need the cash (that's lovely though) but as you may have read above, food bank charities are getting really hit hard with all this panic buying. Please consider giving whatever you'd have given me to a foodbank charity instead:
Thanks in advance for any donations you give. If there's foodbank charities in your country and it's not listed above, please suggest it and I will include it going forward.
submitted by Fwoggie2 to supplychain [link] [comments]

2020.04.09 20:56 Leo99756 UK coronavirus hub that displays official data. You can clearly see that London and the West Midlands have been hit hardest in terms of deaths, though Cumbria and Liverpool are also badly affected. (X-post /r/unitedkingdom)

UK coronavirus hub that displays official data. You can clearly see that London and the West Midlands have been hit hardest in terms of deaths, though Cumbria and Liverpool are also badly affected. (X-post /unitedkingdom) submitted by Leo99756 to CoronavirusUK [link] [comments]

2020.04.09 20:30 Leo99756 UK coronavirus hub that displays official data. You can clearly see that London and the West Midlands have been hit hardest in terms of deaths, though Cumbria and Liverpool are also badly affected.

UK coronavirus hub that displays official data. You can clearly see that London and the West Midlands have been hit hardest in terms of deaths, though Cumbria and Liverpool are also badly affected. submitted by Leo99756 to unitedkingdom [link] [comments]

2020.03.21 13:35 knechtmartin [Academic] The effect of environmentally sustainable business behaviour on employee motivation (Any Employees, 18+)

Hi, I currently am a student at the University of Cumbria in Lancaster.
For my BA dissertation, I need your help, as I have decided to conduct a survey with employees of various companies.
More information about my topic is available in the survey.
To access the survey, please click the following link (available on mobile devices):
Please take 5 - 10 minutes to complete the survey before Tuesday, March 31st. Your feedback is very much appreciated and essential for my study.
All data will be collected anonymously and treated confidentially. Please be honest when responding to the survey questions.
If you have any questions feel free to contact me anytime.
Thanks for your attention, I am looking forward to your replies!
submitted by knechtmartin to SampleSize [link] [comments]

2020.02.11 09:16 akshayimr Comprehensive study on Twist Wrap Packaging Market Research Report 2020

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Augean PLC
Tradebe UK
Healthcare Environmental Group
Kent Clinical Waste?Chatha Hygiene ?
Harpers Environmental Ltd
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submitted by akshayimr to u/akshayimr [link] [comments]

2019.11.25 05:01 AlanHoshor [Letter]

This article is one of the myriad examples of the human predisposition to only recognize one part of the elephant. I have an innate capability to see interrelationships in a stream of time. Hence I wrote my book. Unfortunately, an infinitesimal few think like I do. Most everyone is in denial, or less often totally focused on a singular issue.
It is why my conclusions about humanity were so frustratingly negative. We are not adapted to deal with this world that we’ve conquered. It will be the death of us. It is extremely painful for me to watch.
Alan Hoshor
Scientists disagree on the timeline of collapse and whether it's imminent. But can we afford to be wrong? And what comes after?
By Nafeez Ahmed
Nov 22 2019, 6:00am
“It is now too late to stop a future collapse of our societies because of climate change.”
These are not the words of a tinfoil hat-donning survivalist. This is from a paper delivered by a senior sustainability academic at a leading business school to the European Commission in Brussels, earlier this year. Before that, he delivered a similar message to a UN conference: “Climate change is now a planetary emergency posing an existential threat to humanity.”
In the age of climate chaos, the collapse of civilization has moved from being a fringe, taboo issue to a more mainstream concern.
As the world reels under each new outbreak of crisis—record heatwaves across the Western hemisphere, devastating fires across the Amazon rainforest, the slow-moving Hurricane Dorian, severe ice melting at the poles—the question of how bad things might get, and how soon, has become increasingly urgent.
The fear of collapse is evident in the framing of movements such as ‘Extinction Rebellion’ and in resounding warnings that business-as-usual means heading toward an uninhabitable planet.
But a growing number of experts not only point at the looming possibility that human civilization itself is at risk; some believe that the science shows it is already too late to prevent collapse. The outcome of the debate on this is obviously critical: it throws light on whether and how societies should adjust to this uncertain landscape.
Yet this is not just a scientific debate. It also raises difficult moral questions about what kind of action is warranted to prepare for, or attempt to avoid, the worst. Scientists may disagree about the timeline of collapse, but many argue that this is entirely beside the point. While scientists and politicians quibble over timelines and half measures, or how bad it'll all be, we are losing precious time. With the stakes being total collapse, some scientists are increasingly arguing that we should fundamentally change the structure of society just to be safe.
Jem Bendell, a former consultant to the United Nations and longtime Professor of Sustainability Leadership at the University of Cumbria’s Department of Business, delivered a paper in May 2019 explaining how people and communities might “adapt to climate-induced disruption.”
Bendell’s thesis is not only that societal collapse due to climate change is on its way, but that it is, in effect, already here. “Climate change will disrupt your way of life in your lifetimes,” he told the audience at a climate change conference organized by the European Commission.
Devastating consequences, like “the cascading effects of widespread and repeated harvest failures” are now unavoidable, Bendell’s paper says.
He argues this is not so much a doom-and-gloom scenario as a case of waking up to reality, so that we can do as much as we can to save as many lives as possible. His recommended response is what he calls “Deep Adaptation,” which requires going beyond “mere adjustments to our existing economic system and infrastructure, in order to prepare us for the breakdown or collapse of normal societal functions.”
Bendell’s message has since gained a mass following and high-level attention. It is partly responsible for inspiring the new wave of climate protests reverberating around the world.
In March, he launched the Deep Adaptation Forum to connect and support people who, in the face of “inevitable” societal collapse, want to explore how they can “reduce suffering, while saving more of society and the natural world.” Over the last six months, the Forum has gathered more than 10,000 participants. More than 600,000 people have downloaded Bendell’s paper, called Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating our Climate Tragedy, published by the University of Cumbria’s Institute of Leadership and Sustainability (IFALS). And many of the key organizers behind the Extinction Rebellion (XR) campaign joined the protest movement after reading it.
“There will be a near-term collapse in society with serious ramifications for the lives of readers,” concludes that paper, released in 2017.
Catastrophe is “probable,” it adds, and extinction “is possible.” Over coming decades, we will see the escalating impacts of the fossil fuel pollution we have already pumped into the atmosphere and oceans. Even if we ceased emissions tomorrow, Bendell argues, the latest climate science shows that “we are now in a climate emergency, which will increasingly disrupt our way of life… a societal collapse is now inevitable within the lifetimes of readers of this paper.”
Bendell puts a rough timeline on this. Collapse will happen within 10 years and inflict disruptions across nations, involving “increased levels of malnutrition, starvation, disease, civil conflict, and war.”
Yet this diagnosis opens up far more questions than it answers. I was left wondering: Which societies are at risk of collapsing due to climate change, and when? Some societies or all societies? Simultaneously or sequentially? Why some rather than others? And how long will the collapse process take? Where will it start, and in what sector? How will that impact others sectors? Or will it take down all sectors of societies in one fell swoop? And what does any of this imply for whether, or how, we might prepare for collapse?
In attempting to answer these questions, I spoke to a wide-range of scientists and experts, and took a deep dive into the obscure but emerging science of how societies and civilizations collapse. I wanted to understand not just whether Bendell’s forecast was right, but to find out what a range experts from climate scientists to risk analysts were unearthing about the possibility of our societies collapsing in coming years and decades.
The emerging science of collapse is still, unfortunately, a nascent field. That's because it's an interdisciplinary science that encompasses not only the incredibly complex, interconnected natural systems that comprise the Earth System, but also has to make sense of how those systems interact with the complex, interconnected social, political, economic, and cultural systems of the Human System.
What I discovered provoked a wide range of emotions. I was at times surprised and shocked, often frightened, sometimes relieved. Mostly, I was unsettled. Many scientists exposed flaws in Bendell’s argument. Most rejected the idea of inevitable near-term collapse outright. But to figure out whether a near-term collapse scenario of some kind was likely led me far beyond Bendell. A number of world leading experts told me that such a scenario might, in fact, be far more plausible than conventionally presumed.
Science, gut, or a bit of both?
According to Penn State professor Michael Mann, one of the world’s most renowned climate scientists, Bendell’s grasp of the climate science is deeply flawed.
“To me, this paper is a perfect storm of misguidedness and wrongheadedness,” he told me.
Bendell’s original paper had been rejected for publication by the peer-reviewed Sustainability Accounting, Management and Policy Journal. According to Bendell, the changes that editorial reviewers said were necessary to make the article fit for publication made no sense. But among them, one referee questioned whether Bendell’s presentation of climate data actually supported his conclusion: “I am not sure that the extensive presentation of climate data supports the core argument of the paper in a meaningful way.”
In his response, sent in the form of a letter to the journal’s chief editor, Bendell wrote: “Yet the summary of science is the core of the paper as everything then flows from the conclusion of that analysis. Note that the science I summarise is about what is happening right now, rather than models or theories of complex adaptive systems which the reviewer would have preferred.”
But in Mann’s view, the paper’s failure to pass peer review was not simply because it didn’t fit outmoded academic etiquette, but for the far more serious reason that it lacks scientific rigor. Bendell, he said, is simply “wrong on the science and impacts: There is no credible evidence that we face ‘inevitable near-term collapse.’”
Dr. Gavin Schmidt, head of NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies, who is also world-famous, was even more scathing.
“There are both valid points and unjustified statements throughout,” he told me about Bendell's paper. “Model projections have not underestimated temperature changes, not everything that is non-linear is therefore ‘out of control.’ Blaming ‘increased volatility from more energy in the atmosphere’ for anything is silly. The evidence for ‘inevitable societal collapse’ is very weak to non-existent.”
Schmidt did not rule out that we are likely to see more instances of local collapse events. “Obviously we have seen such collapses in specific locations associated with extreme storm impacts,” he said. He listed off a number of examples—Puerto Rico, Barbuda, Haiti, and New Orleans—explaining that while local collapses in certain regions could be possible, it's a "much harder case to make" at a global level. "And this paper doesn't make it. I’m not particularly sanguine about what is going to happen, but this is not based on anything real.”
Jeremy Lent, systems theorist and author of The Patterning Instinct: A Cultural History of Humanity’s Search for Meaning, argues that throughout Bendell’s paper he frequently slips between the terms “inevitable,” “probably,” and “likely.”
“If he chooses to go with his gut instinct and conclude collapse is inevitable, he has every right to do so,” Lent said, “but I believe it’s irresponsible to package this as a scientifically valid conclusion, and thereby criticize those who interpret the data otherwise as being in denial.”
When I pressed Bendell on this issue, he pushed back against the idea that he was putting forward a hard, scientifically-valid forecast, describing it as a “guess”: “I say in the original paper that I am only guessing at when social collapse will occur. I have said or written that every time I mention that time horizon.”
But why offer this guess at all? “The problem I have with the argument that I should not give a time horizon like 10 years is that not deciding on a time horizon acts as a psychological escape from facing our predicament. If we can push this problem out into 2040 or 2050, it somehow feels less pressing. Yet, look around. Already harvests are failing because of weather made worse by climate change.”
Bendell points out that such impacts are already damaging more vulnerable, poorer societies than our own. He says it is only a matter of time before they damage the normal functioning of “most countries in the world.”
Global food system failure
According to Dr. Wolfgang Knorr, Principal Investigator at Lund University’s Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Program, the risk of near-term collapse should be taken far more seriously by climate scientists, given the fact that so much is unknown about climate tipping points: “I am not saying that Bendell is right or wrong. But the criticism of Bendell’s points focuses too much on the detail and in that way studiously tries to avoid the bigger picture. The available data points to the fact that some catastrophic climate change is inevitable."
Bendell argues that the main trigger for some sort of collapse—which he defines as “an uneven ending of our normal modes of sustenance, security, pleasure, identity, meaning, and hope”—will come from accelerating failures in the global food system.
We know that it is a distinct possibility that so-called multi-breadbasket failures (when major yield reductions take place simultaneously across agricultural areas producing staple crops like rice, wheat, or maize) can be triggered by climate change—and have already happened.
As shown by American physicist Dr. Yaneer Ban Yam and his team at the New England Complex Systems Institute, in the years preceding 2011, global food price spikes linked to climate breakdown played a role in triggering the ‘Arab Spring’ uprisings. And according to hydroclimatologist Dr. Peter Gleick, climate-induced drought amplified the impact of socio-political and economic mismanagement, inflicting agricultural failures in Syria. These drove mass migrations within the country, in turn laying the groundwork for sectarian tensions that spilled over into a protracted conflict.
In my own work, I found that the Syrian conflict was not just triggered by climate change, but a range of intersecting factors—Syria’s domestic crude oil production had peaked in the mid-90s, leading state revenues to hemorrhage as oil production and exports declined. When global climate chaos triggered food price spikes, the state had begun slashing domestic fuel and food subsidies, already reeling from the impact of economic mismanagement and corruption resulting in massive debt levels. And so, a large young population overwhelmed with unemployment and emboldened by decades of political repression took to the streets when they could not afford basic bread. Syria has since collapsed into ceaseless civil war.
This is a case of what Professor Thomas-Homer Dixon, University Research Chair in the University of Waterloo’s Faculty of Environment, describes as “synchronous failure”—when multiple, interconnected stressors amplify over time before triggering self-reinforcing feedback loops which result in them all failing at the same time. In his book, The Upside of Down: Catastrophe, Creativity and the Renewal of Civilization, he explains how the resulting convergence of crises overwhelms disparate political, economic and administrative functions, which are not designed for such complex events.
From this lens, climate-induced collapse has already happened, though it is exacerbated by and amplifies the failure of myriad human systems. Is Syria a case-study of what is in store for the world? And is it inevitable within the next decade?
In a major report released in August, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warned that hunger has already been rising worldwide due to climate impacts. A senior NASA scientist, Cynthia Rosenzweig, was a lead author of the study, which warned that the continued rise in carbon emissions would drive a rise in global average temperatures of 2°C in turn triggering a “very high” risk to food supplies toward mid-century. Food shortages would hit vulnerable, poorer regions, but affluent nations may also be in the firing line. As a new study from the UK Parliamentary Environment Audit Committee concludes, fruit and vegetable imports to countries like Britain might be cut short if a crisis breaks out.
When exactly such a crisis might happen is not clear. Neither reports suggest it would result in the collapse of civilization, or even most countries, within 10 years. And the UN also emphasizes that it is not too late to avert these risks through a shift to organic and agro-ecological methods.
NASA’s Gavin Schmidt acknowledged “increasing impacts from climate change on global food production,” but said that a collapse “is not predicted and certainly not inevitable.”
The catastrophic ‘do-nothing’ scenario
A few years ago, though, I discovered first-hand that a catastrophic collapse of the global food system is possible in coming decades if we don’t change course. At the time I was a visiting research fellow at Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute, and I had been invited to a steering committee meeting for the Institute’s Global Research Observatory (GRO), a research program developing new models of global crisis.
One particular model, the Dawe Global Security Model, was focused on the risk of another global food crisis, similar to what triggered the Arab Spring.
“We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends—that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend,” said institute director Aled Jones to the group of stakeholders in the room, which included UK government officials. “The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”
Jones was at pains to clarify that this model-run could not be taken as a forecast, particularly as mitigation policies are already emerging in response to concern about such an outcome: “This scenario is based on simply running the model forward,” he said. “The model is a short-term model. It’s not designed to run this long, as in the real world trends are always likely to change, whether for better or worse.”
Someone asked, “Okay, but what you’re saying is that if there is no change in current trends, then this is the outcome?”
“Yes,” Jones replied quietly.
The Dawe Global Security Model put this potential crisis two decades from now. Is it implausible that the scenario might happen much earlier? And if so why aren’t we preparing for this risk?
When I asked UN disaster risk advisor Scott Williams about a near-term global food crisis scenario, he pointed out that this year’s UN flagship global disaster risk assessment was very much aware of the danger of another global "multiple breadbasket failure."
“A projected increase in extreme climate events and an increasingly interdependent food supply system pose a threat to global food security,” warned the UN Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction released in May. “For instance, local shocks can have far-reaching effects on global agricultural markets.”
Climate models we've been using are not too alarmist; they are consistently too conservative, and we have only recently understood how bad the situation really is.
Current agricultural modelling, the UN report said, does not sufficiently account for these complex interconnections. The report warns that “climate shocks and consequent crop failure in one of the global cereal breadbaskets might have knock-on effects on the global agricultural market. The turbulences are exacerbated if more than one of the main crop-producing regions suffers from losses simultaneously.”
Williams, who was a coordinating lead author of the UN global disaster risk assessment, put it more bluntly: “In a nutshell, Bendell is closer to the mark than his critics.”
He pointed me to the second chapter of the UN report which, he said, expressed the imminent risk to global civilization in a “necessarily politically desensitized” form. The chapter is “close to stating that ‘collapse is inevitable’ and that the methods that we—scientists, modellers, researchers, etc—are using are wholly inadequate to understand that nature of complex, uncertain ‘transitions,’ in other words, collapses.”
Williams fell short of saying that such a collapse scenario was definitely unavoidable, and the UN report—while setting out an alarming level of risk—did not do so either. What they did make clear is that a major global food crisis could erupt unexpectedly, with climate change as a key trigger.
Climate tipping points
A new study by a team of scientists at Oxford, Bristol, and Austria concludes that our current carbon emissions trajectory hugely increases this risk. Published in October in the journal Agricultural Systems, the study warns that the rise in global average temperatures is increasing the likelihood of “production shocks” affecting an increasingly interconnected global food system.
Surpassing the 1.5 °C threshold could potentially trigger major “production losses” of millions of tonnes of maize, wheat and soybean.
Right now, carbon dioxide emissions are on track to dramatically increase this risk of multi-breadbasket failures. Last year, the IPCC found that unless we reduce our emissions levels by five times their current amount, we could hit 1.5°C as early as 2030, and no later than mid-century. This would dramatically increase the risk of simultaneous crop failures, food production shocks and other devastating climate impacts.
In April this year, the European Commission’s European Strategy and Policy Analysis System published its second major report to EU policymakers, Global Trends to 2030: Challenges and Choices for Europe. The report, which explores incoming national security, geopolitical and socio-economic risks, concluded: “An increase of 1.5 degrees is the maximum the planet can tolerate; should temperatures increase further beyond 2030, we will face even more droughts, floods, extreme heat and poverty for hundreds of millions of people; the likely demise of the most vulnerable populations—and at worst, the extinction of humankind altogether.”
But the IPCC’s newer models suggest that the situation is even worse than previously thought. Based on increased supercomputing power and sharper representations of weather systems, those new climate models—presented at a press conference in Paris in late September—reveal the latest findings of the IPCC’s sixth assessment report now underway.
The models now show that we are heading for 7°C by the end of the century if carbon emissions continue unabated, two degrees higher than last year’s models. This means the earth is far more sensitive to atmospheric carbon than previously believed.
This suggests that the climate models we've been using are not too alarmist; they are consistently too conservative, and we have only recently understood how bad the situation really is.
I spoke to Dr. Joelle Gergis, a lead author on the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, about the new climate models. Gergis admitted that at least eight of the new models being produced for the IPCC by scientists in the US, UK, Canada and France suggest a much higher climate sensitivity than older models of 5°C or warmer. But she pushed back against the idea that these findings prove the inevitability of collapse, which she criticized as outside the domain of climate science. Rather, the potential implications of the new evidence are not yet known.
“Yes, we are facing alarming rates of change and this raises the likelihood of abrupt, non-linear changes in the climate system that may cause tipping points in the Earth’s safe operating space,” she said. “But we honestly don’t know how far away we are from that just yet. It may also be the case that we can only detect that we’ve crossed such a threshold after the fact.”
In an article published in August in the Australian magazine The Monthly, Dr. Gergis wrote: “When these results were first released at a climate modelling workshop in March this year, a flurry of panicked emails from my IPCC colleagues flooded my inbox. What if the models are right? Has the Earth already crossed some kind of tipping point? Are we experiencing abrupt climate change right now?”
Half the Great Barrier Reef’s coral system has been wiped out at current global average temperatures which are now hovering around 1°C higher than pre-industrial levels. Gergis describes this as “catastrophic ecosystem collapse of the largest living organism on the planet.” At 1.5°C, between 70 and 90 percent of reef-building corals are projected to be destroyed, and at 2°C, some 99 percent may disappear: “An entire component of the Earth’s biosphere—our planetary life support system—would be eliminated. The knock-on effects on the 25 percent of all marine life that depends on coral reefs would be profound and immeasurable… The very foundation of human civilization is at stake.”
But Gergis told me that despite the gravity of the new models, they do not prove conclusively that past emissions will definitely induce collapse within the next decade.
“While we are undeniably observing rapid and widespread climate change across the planet, there is no concrete evidence that suggests we are facing ‘an inevitable, near term society collapse due to climate change,’” she said. “Yes, we are absolutely hurtling towards conditions that will create major instabilities in the climate system, and time is running out, but I don’t believe it is a done deal just yet.”
Yet it is precisely the ongoing absence of strong global policy that poses the fatal threat. According to Lund University climate scientist Wolfgang Knorr, the new climate models mean that practically implementing the Paris Accords target of keeping temperatures at 1.5 degrees is now extremely difficult. He referred me to his new analysis of the challenge published on the University of Cumbria’s ILFAS blog, suggesting that the remaining emissions budget given by the IPCC “will be exhausted at the beginning of 2025.” He also noted that past investment in fossil-fuel and energy infrastructure alone will put us well over that budget.
The scale of the needed decarbonization is so great and so rapid, according to Tim Garrett, professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Utah, that civilization would need to effectively “collapse” its energy consumption to avoid collapsing due to climate catastrophe. In a 2012 paper in Earth System Dynamics, he concluded therefore that “civilization may be in a double-bind.”
"We still have time to try and avert the scale of the disaster, but we must respond as we would in an emergency"
In a previous paper in Climatic Change, Garrett calculated that the world would need to switch to non-carbon renewable energy sources at a rate of about 2.1 percent a year just to stabilize emissions. “That comes out [equivalent] to almost one new nuclear power plant per day,” Garrett said. Although he sees this as fundamentally unrealistic, he concedes that a crash transition programme might help: “If society invests sufficient resources into alternative and new, non-carbon energy supplies, then perhaps it can continue growing without increasing global warming.”
Gergis goes further, insisting that it is not yet too late: “We still have time to try and avert the scale of the disaster, but we must respond as we would in an emergency. The question is, can we muster the best of our humanity in time?”
There is no straightforward answer to this question. To get there, we need to understand not just climate science, but the nature, dynamics, and causes of civilizational collapse.
Limits to Growth
One of the most famous scientific forecasts of collapse was conducted nearly 50 years ago by a team of scientists at MIT. Their "Limits to Growth" (LTG) model, known as "World3," captured the interplay between exponential population and economic growth, and the consumption of raw materials and natural resources. Climate change is an implicit feature of the model.
LTG implied that business-as-usual would lead to civilizational breakdown, sometime between the second decade and middle of the 21st century, due to overconsumption of natural resources far beyond their rate of renewal. This would escalate costs, diminish returns, and accelerate environmental waste, ecosystem damage, and global heating. With more capital diverted to the cost of extracting resources, less is left to invest in industry and other social goods, driving long-term economic decline and political unrest.
The forecast was widely derided when first published, and its core predictions were often wildly misrepresented by commentators who claimed it had incorrectly forecast the end of the world by the year 2000 (it didn’t).
Systems scientist Dennis Meadows had headed up the MIT team which developed the ‘World3’ model. Seven years ago, he updated the original model in light of new data with co-author Jorgen Randers, another original World3 team-member.
“For those who respect numbers, we can report that the highly aggregated scenarios of World3 still appear… to be surprisingly accurate,” they wrote in Limits to Growth: the 30 year update. “The world is evolving along a path that is consistent with the main features of the scenarios in LTG.”
One might be forgiven for suspecting that the old MIT team were just blowing their own horn. But a range of independent scientific reviews, some with the backing of various governments, have repeatedly confirmed that the LTG ‘base scenario’ of overshoot and collapse has continued to fit new data. This includes studies by Professor Tim Jackson of the University of Surrey, an economics advisor to the British government and Ministry of Defense; Australia’s federal government scientific research agency CSIRO; Melbourne University’s Sustainable Society Institute; and the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries in London.
“Collapse is not a very precise term. It is possible that there would be a general, drastic, uncontrolled decline in population, material use, and energy consumption by 2030 from climate change," Meadows told me when I asked him whether the LTG model shines any light on the risk of imminent collapse. "But I do not consider it to be a high probability event,” he said. Climate change would, however, “certainly suffice to alter our industrial society drastically by 2100.” It could take centuries or millennia for ecosystems to recover.
But there is a crucial implication of the LTG model that is often overlooked: what happens during collapse. During an actual breakdown, new and unexpected social dynamics might come into play which either worsen or even lessen collapse.
Those dynamics all depend on human choices. They could involve positive changes through reform in political leadership or negative changes such as regional or global wars.
That’s why modelling what happens during the onset of collapse is especially tricky, because the very process of collapse alters the dynamics of change.
Growth, complexity and resource crisis
What if, then, collapse is not necessarily the end? That’s the view of Ugo Bardi, of the University of Florence, who has developed perhaps the most intriguing new scientific framework for understanding collapse.
Earlier this year, Bardi and his team co-wrote a paper in the journal BioPhysical Economics and Resource Quality, drawing on the work of anthropologist Joseph Tainter at Utah State University’s Department of Environment and Society. Tainter’s seminal book, The Collapse of Complex Societies, concluded that societies collapse when their investments in social complexity reach a point of diminishing marginal returns.
Tainter studied the fall of the Western Roman empire, Mayan civilization, and Chaco civilization. As societies develop more complex and specialized bureaucracies to solve emerging problems, these new layers of problem-solving infrastructure generate new orders of problems. Further infrastructure is then developed to solve those problems, and the spiral of growth escalates.
As each new layer also requires a new ‘energy’ subsidy (greater consumption of resources), it eventually cannot produce enough resources to both sustain itself and resolve the problems generated. The result is that society collapses to a new equilibrium by shedding layers of complex infrastructure amassed in previous centuries. This descent takes between decades and centuries.
In his recent paper, Bardi used computer models to test how Tainter’s framework stood-up. He found that diminishing returns from complexity were not the main driver of a system’s decline; rather the decline in complexity of the system is due to diminishing returns from exploiting natural resources.
In other words, collapse is a result of a form of endless growth premised on the unsustainable consumption of resources, and the new order of increasingly unresolvable crises this generates.
In my view, we are already entering a perfect storm feedback loop of complex problems that existing systems are too brittle to solve. The collapse of Syria, triggered and amplified partly by climate crisis, did not end in Syria. Its reverberations have not only helped destabilize the wider Middle East, but contributed to the destabilization of Western democracies.
In January, a study in Global Environment Change found that the impact of “climatic conditions” on “drought severity” across the Middle East and North Africa amplified the “likelihood of armed conflict.” The study concluded that climate change therefore played a pivotal role in driving the mass asylum seeking between 2011 and 2015—including the million or so refugees who arrived in Europe in 2015 alone, nearly 50 percent of whom were Syrian. The upsurge of people fleeing the devastation of their homes was a gift to the far-right, exploited by British, French and other nationalists campaigning for the break-up of the European Union, as well as playing a role in Donald Trump’s political campaigning around The Wall.
To use my own terminology, Earth System Disruption (ESD) is driving Human System Destabilization (HSD). Preoccupied with the resulting political chaos, the Human System becomes even more vulnerable and incapable of ameliorating ESD. As ESD thus accelerates, it generates more HSD. The self-reinforcing cycle continues, and we find ourselves in an amplifying feedback loop of disruption and destabilization.
Beyond collapse
SNIP <…>
submitted by AlanHoshor to JordanPeterson [link] [comments]

2019.08.23 07:09 hikerrambler21 Links to definitive maps for the sake of walk planning & footpath research

Here's a list I've compiled, it's about 90% complete. Visit your area and click on the layers options to call up the local council's official record of Rights of Way.
These are really useful but are often completely buried on council sites, hard to find! Even the OS maps follow their lead, so this is a solid resource. enjoy.
Ps. the highways layers show whether a small lane is a public highway or private road - often important for reaching paths that pass by in a field.
Current Definitive Maps
Bedfordshire Borough of BedfordBedford
Bedfordshire Central Bedfordshire,row_legal_network&starteasting=512647.49908447&startnorthing=238829.50027466&startzoom=1995/
Berkshire Borough of WokinghamWokingham
Berkshire Bracknell Forest
Berkshire City of London
Berkshire West Berkshire
Berkshire Windsor and Maidenhead
Bristol Bristol
Buckinghamshire Aylesbury Vale
Buckinghamshire Borough of Milton KeynesMilton Keynes
Buckinghamshire Chiltern DistrictChiltern
Buckinghamshire South Bucks
Buckinghamshire Wycombe DistrictWycombe
Cambridgeshire Cambridge Unknown website
Cambridgeshire East Cambridgeshire
Cambridgeshire Fenland DistrictFenland
Cambridgeshire Huntingdonshire Unknown website
Cambridgeshire South Cambridgeshire /AllMaps&Layers=row,row-TROs&tab=maps
Cheshire Borough of HaltonHalton Unknown website
Cheshire Cheshire East
Cheshire Cheshire West and Chester Unknown website
Cheshire Warrington
Cornwall Cornwall (district)Cornwall
Cornwall Isles of Scilly
County DurhamDurham Borough of DarlingtonDarlington
County DurhamDurham Borough of HartlepoolHartlepool
County DurhamDurham County Durham (district)County Durham
County DurhamDurham/North Yorkshire Borough of Stockton-on-TeesStockton-on-Tees
Cumbria Allerdale
Cumbria Borough of Barrow-in-FurnessBarrow-in-Furness
Cumbria Borough of CopelandCopeland
Cumbria City of CarlisleCarlisle
Cumbria Eden DistrictEden
Cumbria South Lakeland
Derbyshire Amber Valley
Derbyshire Bolsover DistrictBolsover Unknown website
Derbyshire Borough of ErewashErewash Unknown website
Derbyshire Chesterfield
Derbyshire Derby Unknown website
Derbyshire Derbyshire Dales Unknown website
Derbyshire High Peak, DerbyshireHigh Peak
Derbyshire North East Derbyshire
Derbyshire South Derbyshire Unknown website
Devon East Devon Unknown website
Devon Exeter
Devon Mid Devon
Devon North Devon
Devon Plymouth Unknown website
Devon South Hams
Devon Teignbridge Unknown website
Devon Torbay
Devon Torridge DistrictTorridge Unknown website
Devon West Devon
Dorset Bournemouth, Christchurch and Poole
Dorset Dorset (unitary authority)Dorset Unknown website
East Riding of Yorkshire East Riding of Yorkshire (district)East Riding of Yorkshire
East Riding of Yorkshire Kingston upon Hull
East Sussex Brighton and Hove
East Sussex Eastbourne
East Sussex Hastings
East Sussex Lewes DistrictLewes Unknown website
East Sussex Rother DistrictRother
East Sussex Wealden DistrictWealden Unknown website
Essex Borough of BasildonBasildon
Essex Borough of BrentwoodBrentwood
Essex Borough of ColchesterColchester
Essex Braintree DistrictBraintree
Essex Castle Point
Essex City of ChelmsfordChelmsford
Essex Epping Forest DistrictEpping Forest Unknown website
Essex Harlow
Essex Maldon DistrictMaldon Unknown website
Essex Rochford DistrictRochford
Essex Southend-on-Sea
Essex Tendring DistrictTendring
Essex Thurrock Unknown website
Essex Uttlesford
Gloucestershire Cheltenham
Gloucestershire Cotswold DistrictCotswold Unknown website
Gloucestershire Forest of Dean DistrictForest of Dean
Gloucestershire Gloucester[email protected]@83
Gloucestershire South Gloucestershire
Gloucestershire Stroud DistrictStroud[email protected]@83
Gloucestershire Tewkesbury BoroughTewkesbury Unknown website
Greater London Barking and Dagenham
Greater London City of WestminsterWestminster Unknown website
Greater London Hammersmith and Fulham
Greater London Haringey
Greater London Havering
Greater London London Borough of BarnetBarnet
Greater London London Borough of BexleyBexley
Greater London London Borough of BrentBrent
Greater London London Borough of BromleyBromley
Greater London London Borough of CamdenCamden Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of CroydonCroydon
Greater London London Borough of EalingEaling Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of EnfieldEnfield Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of GreenwichGreenwich Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of HackneyHackney Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of HarrowHarrow
Greater London London Borough of HillingdonHillingdon Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of HounslowHounslow
Greater London London Borough of IslingtonIslington
Greater London London Borough of LambethLambeth
Greater London London Borough of LewishamLewisham
Greater London London Borough of MertonMerton Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of RedbridgeRedbridge
Greater London London Borough of SouthwarkSouthwark Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of SuttonSutton Unknown website
Greater London London Borough of WandsworthWandsworth Unknown website
Greater London Newham
Greater London Richmond upon Thames
Greater London Royal Borough of Kensington and ChelseaKensington and Chelsea
Greater London Royal Borough of Kingston upon ThamesKingston upon Thames
Greater London Tower Hamlets
Greater London Waltham Forest Unknown website
Greater Manchester City of SalfordSalford Unknown website
Greater Manchester Manchester
Greater Manchester Metropolitan Borough of BoltonBolton
Greater Manchester Metropolitan Borough of BuryBury
Greater Manchester Metropolitan Borough of OldhamOldham
Greater Manchester Metropolitan Borough of RochdaleRochdale Unknown website
Greater Manchester Metropolitan Borough of StockportStockport
Greater Manchester Metropolitan Borough of WiganWigan
Greater Manchester Tameside
Greater Manchester Trafford
Hampshire (all districts covered) {{official website}}
Hampshire Basingstoke and Deane
Hampshire Borough of EastleighEastleigh
Hampshire Borough of FarehamFareham
Hampshire Borough of HavantHavant Unknown website
Hampshire City of WinchesterWinchester Unknown website
Hampshire East Hampshire
Hampshire Gosport Unknown website
Hampshire Hart (district)Hart
Hampshire New Forest DistrictNew Forest,-1.58605129,15
Hampshire Portsmouth
Hampshire Rushmoor
Hampshire Southampton
Hampshire Test Valley
Herefordshire Herefordshire
Hertfordshire Borough of BroxbourneBroxbourne
Hertfordshire Dacorum Unknown website
Hertfordshire East Hertfordshire Unknown website
Hertfordshire Hertsmere Unknown website
Hertfordshire North Hertfordshire
Hertfordshire St Albans City and DistrictSt Albans,1,2,3,4
Hertfordshire Stevenage,1,2,3,4
Hertfordshire Three Rivers DistrictThree Rivers Unknown website
Hertfordshire Watford Unknown website
Hertfordshire Welwyn Hatfield Unknown website
Isle of Wight Isle of Wight
Kent Borough of AshfordAshford
Kent Borough of DartfordDartford
Kent Borough of MaidstoneMaidstone Unknown website
Kent Borough of SwaleSwale Unknown website
Kent Borough of Tunbridge WellsTunbridge Wells Unknown website
Kent City of CanterburyCanterbury
Kent Dover DistrictDover
Kent Folkestone & Hythe DistrictFolkestone and Hythe
Kent Gravesham
Kent Medway Unknown website
Kent Sevenoaks DistrictSevenoaks
Kent Thanet DistrictThanet Unknown website
Kent Tonbridge and Malling Unknown website
Lancashire Blackburn with Darwen Unknown website
Lancashire Blackpool
Lancashire Borough of BurnleyBurnley
Lancashire Borough of ChorleyChorley
Lancashire Borough of FyldeFylde Unknown website
Lancashire Borough of PendlePendle Unknown website
Lancashire Borough of RossendaleRossendale
Lancashire Borough of WyreWyre Unknown website
Lancashire City of LancasterLancaster Unknown website
Lancashire City of Preston, LancashirePreston Unknown website
Lancashire Hyndburn Unknown website
Lancashire Peterborough
Lancashire Ribble Valley
Lancashire South Ribble
Lancashire West Lancashire
Leicestershire Blaby DistrictBlaby
Leicestershire Borough of CharnwoodCharnwood
Leicestershire Borough of MeltonMelton
Leicestershire Harborough DistrictHarborough
Leicestershire Hinckley and Bosworth Unknown website
Leicestershire Leicester
Leicestershire North West Leicestershire
Leicestershire Oadby and Wigston Unknown website
Lincolnshire Borough of BostonBoston Unknown website
Lincolnshire East Lindsey
Lincolnshire Lincoln, EnglandLincoln
Lincolnshire North East Lincolnshire
Lincolnshire North Kesteven
Lincolnshire North Lincolnshire
Lincolnshire South Holland, LincolnshireSouth Holland
Lincolnshire South Kesteven
Lincolnshire West Lindsey Unknown website
Merseyside Liverpool Unknown website
Merseyside Metropolitan Borough of KnowsleyKnowsley
Merseyside Metropolitan Borough of SeftonSefton
Merseyside Metropolitan Borough of St HelensSt Helens Unknown website
Merseyside Metropolitan Borough of WirralWirral Unknown website
Norfolk Borough of Great YarmouthGreat Yarmouth
Norfolk Breckland DistrictBreckland Unknown website
Norfolk Broadland
Norfolk King's Lynn and West Norfolk
Norfolk North Norfolk
Norfolk Norwich
Norfolk South Norfolk
North Yorkshire Borough of HarrogateHarrogate
North Yorkshire Craven
North Yorkshire Hambleton DistrictHambleton
North Yorkshire Middlesbrough
North Yorkshire Redcar and Cleveland
North Yorkshire Richmondshire Unknown website
North Yorkshire Ryedale
North Yorkshire Scarborough (borough)Scarborough
North Yorkshire Selby DistrictSelby
North Yorkshire York,53.8604,-0.7353,54.0616&home=true&zoom=true&scale=true&search=true&searchextent=false&details=true&legend=true&active_panel=legend&theme=light
Northamptonshire Borough of KetteringKettering Unknown website
Northamptonshire Borough of WellingboroughWellingborough Unknown website
Northamptonshire Corby
Northamptonshire Daventry DistrictDaventry
Northamptonshire East Northamptonshire,y=269000,zoom=0,base=NCC,layers=,search=,fade=false,mX=0,mY=0
Northamptonshire Northampton
Northamptonshire South Northamptonshire
Northumberland Northumberland
Nottinghamshire Ashfield, NottinghamshireAshfield
Nottinghamshire Bassetlaw DistrictBassetlaw
Nottinghamshire Borough of BroxtoweBroxtowe Unknown website
Nottinghamshire Borough of GedlingGedling Unknown website
Nottinghamshire Mansfield DistrictMansfield Unknown website
Nottinghamshire Newark and Sherwood,-0.80773676,15
Nottinghamshire Nottingham Unknown website
Nottinghamshire Rushcliffe Unknown website
Oxfordshire Cherwell DistrictCherwell Unknown website
Oxfordshire Oxford
Oxfordshire South Oxfordshire
Oxfordshire Vale of White Horse
Oxfordshire West Oxfordshire
Rutland Rutland Unknown website
Shropshire Shropshire (district)Shropshire
Shropshire Telford and Wrekin Unknown website
Somerset Bath and North East Somerset
Somerset Mendip DistrictMendip
Somerset North Somerset
Somerset Sedgemoor Unknown website
Somerset Somerset West and Taunton Unknown website
Somerset South Somerset Unknown website
South Yorkshire Metropolitan Borough of BarnsleyBarnsley
South Yorkshire Metropolitan Borough of DoncasterDoncaster
South Yorkshire Metropolitan Borough of RotherhamRotherham
South Yorkshire Sheffield
Staffordshire Borough of Newcastle-under-LymeNewcastle-under-Lyme
Staffordshire Borough of StaffordStafford
Staffordshire Borough of TamworthTamworth
Staffordshire Cannock Chase DistrictCannock Chase Unknown website
Staffordshire East Staffordshire
Staffordshire Lichfield DistrictLichfield
Staffordshire South Staffordshire
Staffordshire Staffordshire Moorlands
Staffordshire Stoke-on-Trent
Suffolk Babergh
Suffolk East Suffolk (district)East Suffolk Unknown website
Suffolk Ipswich
Suffolk Mid Suffolk Unknown website
Suffolk West Suffolk (district)West Suffolk Unknown website
Surrey Borough of ElmbridgeElmbridge Unknown website
Surrey Borough of GuildfordGuildford Unknown website
Surrey Borough of RunnymedeRunnymede Unknown website
Surrey Borough of SpelthorneSpelthorne
Surrey Borough of WaverleyWaverley Unknown website
Surrey Borough of WokingWoking Unknown website
Surrey Epsom and Ewell
Surrey Mole Valley
Surrey Reigate and Banstead Unknown website
Surrey Surrey Heath
Surrey Tandridge DistrictTandridge Unknown website
Tyne and Wear City of SunderlandSunderland Unknown website
Tyne and Wear Metropolitan Borough of GatesheadGateshead Unknown website
Tyne and Wear Newcastle upon Tyne
Tyne and Wear North Tyneside Unknown website
Tyne and Wear North Warwickshire
Tyne and Wear South Tyneside Unknown website
Warwickshire (all districts covered) {{official website}}
Warwickshire Borough of RugbyRugby Unknown website
Warwickshire Nuneaton and Bedworth
Warwickshire Stratford-on-Avon DistrictStratford-on-Avon
Warwickshire Warwick DistrictWarwick Unknown website
West Midlands (county)West Midlands Birmingham
West Midlands (county)West Midlands Coventry
West Midlands (county)West Midlands Metropolitan Borough of DudleyDudley
West Midlands (county)West Midlands Metropolitan Borough of SolihullSolihull
West Midlands (county)West Midlands Metropolitan Borough of WalsallWalsall Unknown website
West Midlands (county)West Midlands Sandwell Unknown website
West Midlands (county)West Midlands Wolverhampton Unknown website
West Sussex Adur DistrictAdur
West Sussex Arun DistrictArun
West Sussex Chichester DistrictChichester
West Sussex Crawley
West Sussex Horsham DistrictHorsham
West Sussex Mid Sussex
West Sussex Worthing Unknown website
West Yorkshire Calderdale
West Yorkshire City of BradfordBradford
West Yorkshire City of LeedsLeeds
West Yorkshire City of WakefieldWakefield Unknown website
West Yorkshire Kirklees
Wiltshire Borough of SwindonSwindon
Wiltshire Wiltshire (district)Wiltshire
Worcestershire Bromsgrove DistrictBromsgrove
Worcestershire Malvern Hills DistrictMalvern Hills
Worcestershire Redditch Unknown website
Worcestershire Worcester
Worcestershire Wychavon Unknown website
Worcestershire Wyre Forest DistrictWyre Forest Unknown website
Edit - alphabetised.
submitted by hikerrambler21 to UKhiking [link] [comments]

2019.06.10 21:00 _Revelator_ Clarkson's Columns: Higher Truths & the BMW i8 Roadster review

Higher truths are out there, and you don't need crampons or a death wish to reach them
(Sunday Times, June 9)
By Jeremy Clarkson
Last weekend, 94 emergency people with lights on their heads spent many hours trying to rescue an elderly man who had burrowed like a rabbit under the Yorkshire Dales and then broken his leg. And while they were at it, another call came in to say that a rabbit lady in another hole, in Cumbria, had also fallen and badly injured her leg.
Sadly, because of the difficulties in getting him back to the surface, the rabbit man did not survive. But I'm delighted to say the rabbit lady did.
I do not wish to take up caving. The idea of wiggling through a narrow hole that could collapse at any time, hundreds of feet below the surface, fills me with utter dread. But I do see the appeal for those who are not scared of being buried before they're dead. Because that hole where the rabbit man died is unmapped, so who knows? There could be a huge cavern down there, full of luminescent pink fairy dust and diamonds.
This means that caving is actually exploration. And the people who do it are the Abel Tasmans and the Roald Amundsens and the Neil Armstrongs of the modern age. They really are going where no man has gone before. That's why I'm saddened by the death of the old boy last weekend. He was a brave soul and should be remembered as such.
Back in Victorian times, the world was awash with possibilities for those who didn't want to sit through another piano recital in the village hall. They could go and find the source of the Nile or the middle of Australia. But everywhere has a flag on it now. Which is why, last month, a man with some fizz in his veins drove his submarine nearly seven miles below the surface of the Pacific to the bottom of the Mariana Trench. Some people are wired that way, in the same way as some people are wired to watch Love Island.
I also understand the appeal of other extreme sports, such as cycling on one wheel into the path of oncoming lorries. This is a thing in London these days. Hundreds and sometimes thousands of kids take to the capital's streets to wheelie down the wrong side of the road, dodging traffic and doing tricks. "Knives down, bikes up" is their motto, and I wish them all well.
I don't like skiing. It's very tiring and the prices are as stupid as the boots. But as a man who likes to drive quickly, I can see why someone would want to hurtle down a mountain on the very edge of control. It's a rush.
What I don't understand, however, is mountaineering. I was once interviewing a Frenchman called Alain Robert beneath the arch at La Défense in Paris, when, without as much as a by-your-leave, he started to climb up it. Now I don't know if you've ever examined this colossus, but it's completely smooth. It'd be like climbing up a massive plate-glass window.
Since then, Monsieur Robert has climbed all sorts of tall buildings all over the world, and all he ever gets after reaching the top is arrested. So it all seems rather pointless.
I watched a documentary last week about a wiry American fella who decided one day that he'd like to climb the 3,000ft Dawn Wall in Yosemite national park. It had never been done before, so in some ways you could argue that he was pushing the limits of what's possible. But the record for eating baked beans with a cocktail stick currently stands at 275 in five minutes. And, I'm sorry, but if, one day, someone managed to eat more, you could hardly argue that he was the next Sir Ernest Shackleton. And eating baked beans with a cocktail stick is no different from being a fly on a rock face in California.
Less dangerous? Not really. The wiry American fella's climbing partner spent most of the ascent falling off and he didn't die once. All he ended up with at the top were some hurty fingers.
For real danger you need to go up Everest. It's claimed 11 souls this year alone. It's proper mountaineering. You have to clamber over foothills made from the rubbish dropped by those who've done it before, and you have to navigate round all the frozen corpses of those who haven't.
And then you must stand in a half-mile queue of cagoule people, comparing lip balm and debating whether Viagra really does help with altitude sickness (it doesn't — I've tried), before, eventually, you get to the summit and someone takes a picture of you. Or is it you? In all that clobber and with your face behind an oxygen mask and tinted goggles, who would ever know? I agree that mountaineering is difficult. If I ask one leg to support my weight, it always goes wobbly, and, to make matters worse, my gut means the rest of me is always about 2ft from the rock face. I wouldn't do it. But some people like to set themselves challenges. They don't care that a million others have done it before. They just want to prove that they can be one of them too.
However, if you get it wrong, there is expense and helicopters and using a head wand for the rest of your life. And as a result, surely, you'd be better off using your spare time to do something worthwhile.
It's hard to find undiscovered places, but all around us are scientific truths that have not yet been found. Or even thought about. There's a line in the closing monologue of the breathtakingly good Chernobyl series on Sky: "[Truth] is always there, whether we see it or not ... The truth doesn't care about our needs or wants. It doesn't care about our governments, our ideologies, our religions. It will lie in wait for all time."
This is correct. The truth about everything that we don't yet know will lie in wait. Until someone puts down his crampons and his karabiners. And finds it.
Birdsong at the speed of soundless: The Clarkson Review: BMW i8 Roadster
(Sunday Times, June 09)
By Jeremy Clarkson
Not that long ago I reviewed the then new McLaren 720S and, to recap, I said it was a nerd's car and that the engineers who created it would have been better employed by the company's Formula One team. I mean, who in the real world wants to download data from the onboard computer to see how they've done on their journey home from work? I also said it was too complicated and that its brakes were odd. By which I meant weird. By which I meant terrible. And I concluded that what it needed was some magic fairy dust. Think of it as hair. Yes, a young woman can look lovely when she comes out of the barber and everything up top is neat and tidy. But I guarantee it will look better first thing in the morning when she wakes up.
Well, this is exactly what McLaren has done with the 720S — messed up its barnet by removing it altogether. This ruins all the rigidity, adds weight and turns what was designed to be the last word in engineering perfection into something that's just fun. And apart from the brakes, which are still terrible, I loved it. And I loved it right up to the moment there was a wailing noise and all the power stopped happening and a tow lorry had to come.
So let's move on, shall we, to the BMW i8, which has undergone a similar operation to create what's called the i8 Roadster.
When I first drove the i8 coupé a few years ago, I was extremely impressed with how you could commute to and from work on silent electric drive, then blast past Porsches on a weekend trip to the countryside.
I also loved the way it had an electric motor powering the front wheels and a rear-mounted, three-cylinder Mini engine powering the back wheels, and yet, somehow, it didn't split in half every time you pressed the accelerator. Which it would do if I'd been involved in the design process. In fact, despite the complexity, it was no harder to drive than a Nissan Juke.
Since then, however, two things have happened. I've grown bored and weary of the whole idea of sustainable motoring. It's a nuisance, really, and only a government could think you can tackle conspicuous consumption by buying cars that have, in effect, two engines. Indeed, I said on television that I will never buy an electric car, and I'm not that interested in hybrids either. They make no sense, and they make no difference, ultimately, to the air you breathe.
The other thing that's happened is that the i8, weirdly, has started to look old. The problem is that it was specifically designed to look futuristic, and all things designed to look like they're from the future almost immediately look like they're from the past. Put simply, this car is about as on the money as Thunderbird 2. On the basis that it looks curiously old-fashioned, then, and it uses a drive system I no longer find interesting, and it's a convertible that cannot be driven by a man of my age with the roof down because it sends out a lot of messages, all of them wrong, I wasn't really looking forward to my time in the i8 Roadster.
All the problems with the coupé reared their heads straight away. The windows do not go all the way down, so you can't drive, Italianstyle, with your elbow on the sill. And the boot is tragically small. And there's nowhere to put anything in the cabin, not even the key. Plus, it costs almost £127,000, which is a lot.
But despite all this, and despite my reservations about the styling and drive system, this is a hugely likeable car. You know when you sit next to someone at a party and everything about them seems to be wrong, but by the time pudding comes, you know you've made a friend for life? It's that.
Much of the appeal comes from the fact it doesn't feel like a normal car. It has a steering wheel and see-through windows and everything operates in a conventional way, but the noises it makes and all of the things that flash up on the dash are odd, interesting and peculiar. It's an accountant, but with a ponytail.
This is especially apparent when you lower the roof. Do this in any other convertible and what you can hear is the fuel exploding and gases flooding out of the tailpipe. But in the i8, using electric drive only, all you can hear is birdsong.
This is a completely unique experience. Man has never been this fast this quietly in all of history. You can reach a fair old lick on a horse but all you can hear is the damn thing snorting and panicking and thudding. You can reach big speeds on a bicycle, too, but then all you can hear is your own heart and the wind. And if you fall off a cliff, the peace and quiet is normally shattered by the sound of your screams.
In an i8 Roadster, there's none of that. Its eco-tyres are thin and stealthy, and the electric motor is nowhere near as loud as the wood pigeons and the skylarks.
And then you take it out of Chris Packham mode, push the gearlever to its Sport setting and now all you can hear is the little turbocharged engine burping and rasping, and the exhaust occasionally spitting. And, ooh, it's a nice car to hustle. It feels so light, so dainty, so right.
Annoyingly, though, it feels as if the suspension is made from pig iron. This makes life very bumpy on a normal road and almost intolerable in a pot-marked town.
My biggest worry about the i8 Roadster, however, is that it's a critic's car. Think of it as one of those incredibly difficult dishes served up by a gifted provincial chef in an almost silent restaurant. A food reviewer would sit in deep reverence, masticating gently and marvelling at the textures and the flavours and the skill that brought everything together so well.
The i8 is like that. I do genuinely marvel at the brilliance of the thing and I absolutely loved driving it for the sake of just driving. But could I live with a car in which there's only space for the occupants and nothing else, not even a phone? Could I live with the silly doors? Or the windows that don't go down properly, or the way the charger can't be used for charging anything? Could I live with the bumpiness? No. Not really. For going home after work, or going to the shops, I'd rather have a much less expensive BMW M3. In the same way that for a TV dinner you'd rather have a shepherd's pie than an ortolan.
And here's the Sun column: "TV ads have overshot the mark and become too PC when they should be funny"
submitted by _Revelator_ to thegrandtour [link] [comments]

2019.04.29 17:27 slavblobzlizlok Vad måste göras inför klimatkollapsen? (Ja under DIN livstid, text från 2018)

Tydligen är alla ni på det här forumet för lata för att läsa en PDF som kan hittas här enligt modsen källa


Om författaren:Dr Jem Bendell är professor i ''hållbart ledarskap'' och grundade av institutet för ledarskap och hållbarhet (IFLAS) vid Cumbria universitet (uk) (skabbig översättning här ifrån alltså)
Frågor man kan besvara om man känner för det, men då ska man helst läst texten, det är typ 30 sidor kom igen.1: Hur kommer de som blint förnekar kollapsen klara sig? Kommer de klara sig alls?
2:Hur kommer de politiska strategierna se ut i de sista stadierna av förnekelse?3:Varför tror du att folk har så svårt att hantera sakförhållandet rent psykologiskt?
4:Varför accepterade vi blint att status qou förstörde planeten möjligen helt bortom räddning?
5:Kan du ens tänka dig hur det här kommer påverka ditt dagliga liv?
6:Är du säker på at du förstår vad ickelinjära effekter betyder i det här sammanhanget, det är vitalt.
7:Varför har IPCC varit så dåliga på att redogöra för sakförhållandet?7:Varför tror du att media är näst intill knäpptyst angående de ickelinjära klimatförändringarna?Lite utdrag, men ärligt läs hela texten det är värt det.
But the evidence before us suggests that we are set for disruptive and
uncontrollable levels of climate change, bringing starvation, destruction,
migration, disease and war. We do not know for certain how disruptive the impacts of climate change
will be or where will be most affected, especially as economic and social
systems will respond in complex ways. But the evidence is mounting that
the impacts will be catastrophic to our livelihoods and the societies that we
live within.
Our Non-Linear World: This paper is not the venue for a detailed examination of all the latest
climate science. However, I reviewed the scientific literature from the past
few years and where there was still large uncertainty then sought the latest
data from research institutes. In this section I summarise the findings to
establish the premise that it is time we consider the implications of it being
too late to avert a global environmental catastrophe in the lifetimes of
people alive today.
The simple evidence of global ambient temperature rise is undisputable.
Seventeen of the 18 warmest years in the 136-year record all have occurred
since 2001, and global temperatures have increased by 0.9°C since 1880
(NASA/GISS, 2018). The most surprising warming is in the Arctic, where the
2016 land surface temperature was 2.0°C above the 1981-2010 average,
breaking the previous records of 2007, 2011, and 2015 by 0.8°C,
representing a 3.5°C increase since the record began in 1900 (Aaron-
Morrison et al, 2017).
This data is fairly easy to collate and not widely challenged, so swiftly finds
its way into academic publications. However, to obtain a sense of the
implications of this warming on environment and society, one needs real-
time data on the current situation and the trends that it may infer. Climate
change and its associated impacts have, as we will see, been significant in
the last few years. Therefore, to appreciate the situation we need to look
directly to the research institutes, researchers and their websites, for the
most recent information. That means using, but not relying solely on,
academic journal articles and the slowly produced reports of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This international
institution has done useful work but has a track record of significantly
underestimating the pace of change, which has been more accurately
predicted over past decades by eminent climate scientists. Therefore, in
this review, I will draw upon a range of sources, with a focus on data since
  1. That is because, unfortunately, data collected since then is often
consistent with non-linear changes to our environment. Non-linear changes
are of central importance to understanding climate change, as they suggest
both that impacts will be far more rapid and severe than predictions based
on linear projections and that the changes no longer correlate with the rate
of anthropogenic carbon emissions. In other words - ‘runaway climate
The politically permissible scientific consensus is that we need to stay
beneath 2 degrees warming of global ambient temperatures, to avoid
dangerous and uncontrollable levels of climate change, with impacts such
as mass starvation, disease, flooding, storm destruction, forced migration
and war. That figure was agreed by governments that were dealing with
many domestic and international pressures from vested interests,
particularly corporations. It is therefore not a figure that many scientists
would advise, given that many ecosystems will be lost and many risks
created if we approach 2 degrees global ambient warming (Wadhams,
2018). The IPCC agreed in 2013 that if the world does not keep further
anthropogenic emissions below a total of 800 billion tonnes of carbon we
are not likely to keep average temperatures below 2 degrees of global
averaged warming. That left about 270 billion tonnes of carbon to burn
(Pidcock, 2013). Total global emissions remain at around 11 billion tonnes of
carbon per year (which is 37 billion tonnes of CO2). Those calculations
appear worrying but give the impression we have at least a decade to
change. It takes significant time to change economic systems so if we are
not already on the path to dramatic reductions it is unlikely we will keep
within the carbon limit. With an increase of carbon emissions of 2% in 2017,
the decoupling of economic activity from emissions is not yet making a net
dent in global emissions (Canadell et al, 2017). So, we are not on the path
to prevent going over 2 degrees warming through emissions reductions. In
any case the IPCC estimate of a carbon budget was controversial with many
scientists who estimated that existing CO2 in the atmosphere should
already produce global ambient temperature rises over 5°C and so there is
no carbon budget – it has already been overspent (Wasdell, 2015).
That situation is why some experts have argued for more work on removing
carbon from the atmosphere with machines. Unfortunately, the current
technology needs to be scaled by a factor of 2 million within 2 years, all
powered by renewables, alongside massive emission cuts, to reduce the
amount of heating already locked into the system (Wadhams, 2018).
submitted by slavblobzlizlok to svenskpolitik [link] [comments]

2019.04.02 17:13 Molire From 01/01/2014 through 03/31/2019 — During the past 5 years, 1,740 mass shootings occurred in the United States, 1 mass shooting occurred in the United Kingdom, and the rate of mass shootings in the United States has been about 353 times greater than rate of mass shootings in the United Kingdom.

Edited, additional data* —
Definition of mass shooting: any firearm shooting in which 4 or more firearm victims are shot dead or wounded, not including the perpetrator.
1,740 — US, 1,740 total mass shootings, 01/01/2014 through 03/31/2019 (2019 and 2014-2018).
1 — UK, 1 (one) total mass shootings (Moss Side mass shooting), 01/01/2014 through 03/31/2019.
353.41 — Rate of mass shootings in US, approximately 353.41 times greater than rate of mass shootings in UK, 01/01/2014 through 03/31/2019.
0.0015 — UK (population 66,040,200 on 1 Jul 2017), approximately 0.0015 mass shootings per 100k population.
0.5351 — US (population 325,147,121 on 1 Jul 2017), approximately 0.5351 mass shootings per 100k population.
(US mass shooting rate 0.535142367138 ÷ 0.0015142292119 UK mass shooting rate = 353.41. US rate approximately 353 times greater than UK rate.)
In 2018, in the US, firearm violence resulted in 14,731 dead gunshot homicide victims and 28,188 injured gunshot victims, a total of 42,919 victims in that year alone.
(*Additional data: these numbers do include US firearm suicides for 2018. That data is not yet available from the U.S. CDC, but the CDC reports 23,854 firearm suicides in the US for 2017, based on death certificate data. This data is available from the interactive online tool: CDC Wonder-Underlying Cause of Death. Traditionally, in the US, the number of annual firearm suicides surpasses the number of annual firearm homicides, as in 2017, with 23,854 firearm suicides and 15,657 firearm homicides.)
42,919 US gun violence victims in one year, 2018, is a number greater than the estimated number of 34,238 children and women who have died during the past 8 years, through early December 2018, in the violent Syrian Civil War, ongoing since 2011.
Why does the US have such an insanely large rate and number of firearm homicide victims killed and victims maimed in shootings, multiple shootings, mass shootings, and/or school shootings every day of the year?
Why is the annual number of US firearm homicide victims killed by shooting per 100,000 population approximately 99.7 times greater than the annual number of UK firearm homicide victims killed by shooting per 100,000 population?
Poor and weak US firearm laws and regulation make it relatively easy for an angry boy or angry man to get a gun and use it to shoot, maim, and kill children, women, and men, at any time, without warning, nearly anywhere in the United States.
Studies of gun violence around the world have found with high confidence that America's epidemic of gun violence likely is attributable in large part to the astronomical number of civilian-held firearms in the US population. (Harvard Injury Control Research Center, 1. Where there are more guns there is more homicide.)
The most recently published Small Arms Survey (SAS) data about the number of small firearms around the world is for the calendar year 2017.
The 2017 SAS data shows the estimated number of 393,347,000 civilian-held firearms in the US was more than 121 times larger than the estimated number of 3,242,000 civilian-held firearms in the UK (2,731,000 in England and Wales; 206,000 in Northern Ireland; 305,000 in Scotland).
The 2017 SAS data shows the US, one of the 206 sovereign states in the world, has an estimated 393,347,000 civilian-held firearms, equal to 45.88% of the estimated 857,396,100 civilian-held firearms in the world.
On 1 Jul 2017, the size of the US population (325,147,121) was approximately 4.31% of the size of the global population (7,550,262,101) on 1 Jul 2017, yet US inhabitants held an estimated 393,347,000 civilian-held firearms, equal to approximately 45.88%, or nearly half, of the estimated 857,396,100 civilian-held firearms in the world.
On 1 Jul 2017, the size of the UK population (66,040,200) was approximately 0.875% of the size of the global population (7,550,262,101) on 1 Jul 2017, and UK inhabitants held an estimated 3,242,000, or 0.378% (slightly more than ¹⁄₃ of 1 percent), of the estimated 857,396,100 civilian-held firearms in the world.
(In 2017, the total number of civilian-held firearms in the world excluded an estimated 22,734,000 law enforcement firearms in the world and excluded an estimate of at least 133 million military-owned firearms in the world.)
In comparison with the US, why does the UK have so few mass shootings and firearm homicides, with 29 total firearm homicide victims killed by shooting in the year ending March 2018 in England and Wales (combined population 58,744,600 in 2017), and 2 total firearm homicide victims killed by shooting in 2017 in Scotland (population 5,424,800 in 2017).
In comparison with the US, why does the UK have a relatively low number of civilian-held firearms?
In large part, the answer to these questions likely is effective firearm laws, which the UK government strongly enforces.
UK Prohibited Weapons Defined by section 5 Firearms Act 1968 as Amended, includes the list of banned firearms and a description of the maximum sentences for offenders convicted of violating UK firearm laws, e.g., "For possession, purchase or acquisition - 10 years imprisonment. For manufacture, sale of transfer - Life imprisonment."
According to the UK National Ballistics Intelligence Service (NABIS), a British intelligence police service, for the 1-year period from 1 Apr 2016 to 31 March 2017, the number of guns NABIS can say were in criminal hands in Great Britain (England, Wales, and Scotland, total population 64,169,400 in 2017) was a total of 322 guns in criminal hands (see 3rd from last paragraph in link).
In comparison with the US population, relatively few criminals in the UK population have firearms, relatively few UK police officers have firearms, and relatively few UK civilians have firearms. The UK is not a firearm-obsessed country. Most sound people in the UK do not want to risk up to 10 years or life imprisonment for possessing or conveying any of the types of firearms illegal under UK law.
The UK does not suffer from a widespread epidemic of firearm violence like the US, in large part because the UK has very effective firearm laws. The people of the UK like their firearm laws. They like living in a country where parents don't worry about their children being shot dead at school. The people of the UK like not worrying about being shot dead at work or at an outdoor music festival, or in a movie theater, bank, hospital, yoga studio, amusement park, shopping mall, restaurant, classroom, night club, church, synagogue, or mosque.
2016 data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) shows the UK has one of the lowest rates of violent gun deaths in the world, after Singapore, Japan, South Korea, China, and Oman.
The same IHME data shows the US has one of the highest rates of violent gun deaths in the world, higher than in Syria, Iran, Palestinian Territories, Pakistan, Lebanon, Turkey, Sudan, India, and many other countries.
If the U.S. government legislates new and better firearm laws as effective as or more effective than than UK firearm laws, and if the U.S. government has a nationwide firearm buy back program somewhat like or better than the UK, Australia, and New Zealand buy back programs, over time, the number of firearms and the rate and number of gun violence shootings, deaths, and woundings in the US are more likely to see a significant decrease.
In the UK, during the past 23 years, from 13 Mar 1996 through 31 Mar 2019, a total of four (4) mass shootings have occurred:
Dunblane school massacre — On March 13, 1996, a gunman killed 16 children, killed one teacher, and wounded 16 other victims before killing himself. This massacre was the first and last school shooting in UK history.
Massereene Barracks shooting — On March 7, 2009, two off-duty British soldiers were shot dead outside Massereene Barracks in Antrim town, Northern Ireland. Two other soldiers and two civilian delivery men were also shot and wounded during the attack. An Irish republican paramilitary group, the Real IRA, claimed responsibility.
Cumbria shootings — On March 22, 2010, in Cumbria, England, in a shooting spree, a gunman killed 12, injured 11, and killed himself.
Moss Side mass shooting — On August 12, 2018, a mass shooting happened in Manchester, England. It was the first mass shooting in the UK since the Cumbria shootings in 2010. The weapon used was believed by Greater Manchester Police to be a shotgun. There were no fatalities. 12 victims were injured.
Small Arms Survey >> Resources >> Tools Global Firearms Holdings >> Estimating Global Civilian-held Firearms Numbers >> Overview >> Read Estimating Global Civilian-held Firearms Numbers.
Small Arms Survey >> Resources >> Tools >> Global Firearms Holdings >> Estimating Global Civilian-held Firearms Numbers >> Annexe with data by country/territory
List of massacres in Great Britain.
Mass shootings in the United Kingdom, 1970s through 2010s.
submitted by Molire to GunsAreCool [link] [comments]

2019.03.18 19:16 UnnecessaryAppeal "Pants" vs "Trousers"

Following comments made on u/Relaxing_Cat’s post on britishproblems (here), especially u/E_V_E_R_T_O_N’s comment, I decided to do a quick survey of the use of “pants” and “trousers” in the UK. The survey was up for 24 hours and I got 97 responses. I’ve made a quick attempt to analyse the data and plot it up so we can find out if the choice of word has any geographical cause.
We got responses from at least two people in each region of the UK (and two from Australia), however some regions were better represented than others. For example, we ended up with 38 responses from the North West, with the next most common region being London with 9. This is probably as a result of u/E_V_E_R_T_O_N and I being from the North West, and so people may have felt more inclined to get involved to prove one of us wrong. If I get more results from other regions over the next week then I might try and do a more comprehensive study.
The overall result of the study was that “trousers” is preferred by 62% of respondents. However, this is probably an underrepresentation due to the overrepresentation of the North West which favours “pants” by almost 80% and makes up nearly 40% of the sample size. The only regions of the UK to have any people preferring “pants” to “trousers” were the North East, the North West, and Yorkshire and the Humber suggesting that it is indeed controlled by the north-south divide. Because there were so many responses from the North West, I decided to look closer at the parts of the North West where each word was favoured. One respondent of the eight from Liverpool preferred “trousers” with most Liverpudlians preferring “pants”. Of the two respondents from Lancaster, one preferred “pants” and one preferred “trousers” and the only respondent from Cheshire preferred “trousers”. Manchester was split almost 50-50 with 5 preferring “trousers” and 4 preferring “pants”. Every other town/city in the North West (most of which were towns within Greater Manchester such as Bolton, Wigan and Oldham) that was represented in this survey exclusively preferred “pants”. I am therefore proposing that south Manchester and Cheshire makes up the “trousers” preferring population of the North West and north Manchester, Lancashire, Cumbria and Merseyside prefer “pants”.
I have also plotted the results on a map showing preferred term by region as well as a map showing the preferred term by county. (I haven’t included Northern Ireland on the map because I only have data from Belfast and both respondents said “trousers”). The county map shows that huge parts of the country are not represented so I’m going to leave the survey up and see if we can get some more data. The maps are here.
If anyone wants to add data to this survey, feel free. It’s gonna be a little while before I’ll have the time to analyse it again though.
submitted by UnnecessaryAppeal to CasualUK [link] [comments]

2019.01.25 14:02 womble123 Historic UK Railway map anywhere?

Just wondering if anyone has a link to a map of the old UK railway lines before they were taken up? Especially interested in my local line being Lakeside to Ulverston (Cumbria, UK). There is still the old Lakeside to Haverthwaite steam railway but many years ago it was disconnected from Ulverston mainline.
If not a map maybe like a Google Earth overlay?
submitted by womble123 to trains [link] [comments]

2019.01.24 00:10 understandmeso Town with the Highest Rate of Mesothelioma in UK

Town with the Highest Rate of Mesothelioma in UK
From The Everyman's #1 Resource for Understanding Mesothelioma Research
Barrow in the United Kingdom has the highest incidence rate of mesothelioma in the United Kingdom. As a result, the Cumbria & Lancashire Asbestos Support Advice Group was established at the Barrow and District Disability Association.
The Royal College of Physicians run the National Mesothelioma audit and released statistics that from 2014-2016, at least 75 cases of mesothelioma were diagnosed in Barrow hospitals.
According to data from the Health and Safety Executive, this is three times the national average - down from 4.3 times the national average between 1981 and 2015, but still Barrow has the highest incidence of mesothelioma in the UK.
submitted by understandmeso to u/understandmeso [link] [comments]

2019.01.06 04:33 kaunis [Saturday Jan. 5 2019] Children to learn CPR and basic first aid in uk schools; Thousands in Budapest march against ‘slave law’ forcing overtime on workers; LA Suing Weather Channel App For Selling Users Location Data; NASA Will Be Conducting its First Real-World Test of Planetary Defense Spacecraft



  • BlankVerse
    [Title Post] LA Is Suing The Weather Channel App For Selling Users' Location Data
    Comments Link
  • iiiears
    N.Y. Police Official Who Took Las Vegas Trip and Gifts Is Acquitted of Corruption Charges
    Comments Link


  • MaryADraper
    Our universe could be the mirror image of an antimatter universe extending backwards in time before the Big Bang. Physicists, who have devised a new cosmological model positing the existence of an “antiuniverse” which, paired to our own, preserves a fundamental rule of physics called CPT symmetry.
    Comments Link
  • MaryADraper
    [Title Post] NASA Will Be Conducting its First Real -World Test of its Planetary Defense Spacecraft. The Double Asteroid Redirection Test will take place in the next couple of years and head towards the Didymos asteroid.
    Comments Link


  • mvea
    Engineers create an inhalable form of messenger RNA, which can induce cells to produce therapeutic proteins, and holds great promise for treating a variety of diseases. This aerosol could be administered directly to the lungs to help treat diseases such as cystic fibrosis.
    Comments Link


  • heinz_inthecity
    How were chronic pain conditions treated prior to the discovery of modern pain killers? Did Ancient civilisations have better treatments that Medieval Europe?


  • mvea
    Researchers say they've developed a 'super' house plant that can remove air pollutants from your home, including carcinogens like chloroform and benzene.
    Comments Link



  • SittingOnTheToilet82
    Kids, when did you realize your parents might be terminally stupid?
  • MrsWaters
    People who work in high class restaurants and hotels, what is the most ridiculous, stereotypical "rich person" thing you've ever experienced someone has done?
  • DwightCharlieQuint
    What’s the stupidest thing you’ve seen a grown-ass adult get angry over?


  • Dlatrex
    TIL Although rarely seen alive, in 2015 a Giant squid swam into a harbor near Tokyo on Christmas Eve. A diver jumped into the water to film and swam close to the squid for several minutes before it returned to the ocean.
    Comments Link
  • Sariel007
    TIL: The Belly Button Biodiversity Project. Scientists examined the genetic makeup of the bacterial found in the bellybuttons of 60 volunteers. One individual, who hadn't washed in several years, hosted 2 species of extremophile bacteria that typically thrive in ice caps and thermal vents.
    Comments Link
  • JinxXedOmens
    TIL about Yo-Yo the bassett hound, kept by the master at Cambridge University Selwyn. Dogs are not allowed on the premises, so Yo-Yo has been officially classified as a "very large cat" so that the master can keep him on the campus.
    Comments Link
    TIL in 1952, at the age of 18, Donnie Dunagan became the Marine's youngest-ever drill instructor. He served 3 tours in Vietnam and was wounded several times, earning 3 purple hearts. He also kept a secret for over 50 years that he was a child actor and the voice of young Bambi.
    Comments Link


  • emils5
    ELI5: Most countries in the world seem to be in debt. Who exactly do they owe? Are there any consequences for them being in debt?














  • r_person
    WW2 plane found in the Sahara desert, almost perfectly preserved after over 70 years. Evidence of makeshift camp suggests pilot survived the initial crash.
    Comments Link





  • rossamaxa
    This is Thorin, he had cerebellar hypoplasia, which basically means his balance is way off. He lives a totally happy life, he just falls over a lot.
    Comments Link
    Bringing your best friend to work.
    Comments Link
  • klpack11
    Meet Cinnamon. She was born with ears that look like cinnamon rolls.
    Comments Link


  • remotectrl
    Hoary Bats can be found from Canada to Argentina. They migrate in small groups in spring and fall but spend the rest of the year living alone in trees. They wrap themselves in their furry tail during the day.
    Comments Link

Something New

Everyday we’ll feature a selected small subreddit and its top content. It's a fun way to include and celebrate smaller subreddits.

Today's subreddit is...


Its top 3 all time posts
submitted by kaunis to tldr [link] [comments]

2018.12.29 03:54 Angrytoad The Uncomfortable connection between Ethnicity and Crime

Hi There, I often see a lot of comments on posts on /unitedkingdom attempting to skirt around the VERY uncomfortable discussion around Crime and Race. I wanted to get a better understanding and explaination as to why Black/Mixed ethnicity citizens of the UK carry out a disproportionate amount of crime per 1,000 than other races.
From statistics provided for 2016/2017 from (SOURCE) we get the following data for arrests per 1,000 people.
Now from this its clear that its not just an immigation issue, as both Asian and Other Inc. Chinese have MUCH lower rates of arrest than Black and Mixed ethnicity citizens and have both very comparable rates of immigation to other ethnicities.
You COULD make the argument that its a geographical thing, that cities tend to attract a wider range of ethnicities and there is generally more crime in cities but when looking at Arrest rates by Geographic area its clear there is something else at play with Dorest and Cumbria leading with an eye watering 128 and 104 arrests of Black Ethnicity citizens per 1,000. With both counties having no particularly strong metropolitan areas.
I'd also like to point out that Cumbria also has the highest rate of arrests per 1,000 for the Other Inc. Chinese ethnicity, however on the whole Other Inc. Chinese also has incredibly low rates of crime in neighbouring counties such as Lancashire (3 in 1,000) which is not the case for others. I suspect this is largely to do with the tourism draw of the lakes for predominantly Chinese tourists during the summer but I don't have anything to back this up apart from anecdotal evidence from the numerous visits over the years.
So my question is, what is driving this? I 100% do not believe the answer is something as simple as "The Police Force is Racist" because if that were the case, we'd see a larger jump between White and all other non-white ethnicities which is not the case. Is it a Cultural thing? Lack of Opportunities? Under-reporting of Crime in traditional white neighbour hoods?
Is this something that actually has an explaination?
submitted by Angrytoad to unitedkingdom [link] [comments]

2018.08.26 13:21 chowieuk David Davis in The S*n: "in 15 years’ time, far from worrying about Mr Hammond’s £80billion bill, the country will have trouble remembering what all the fuss was about."

Because that shitrag of a newspaper doesn't deserve any ad clicks, i'll paste the article here:
DAVID DAVIS: Just ignore bogus Chancellor Hammond… the sun is Brexing out
The Chancellor is attempting to frighten the ­population into imagining the most ­terrible consequences of leaving the European Union without a deal
WHEN the world suffered enormous financial crisis in 2008, the Queen asked simply: “Why did no one see it coming?”
Of course, she was right to ask.
Chancellor Philip Hammond is predicting a dire economic outcome for Britain if Brussels negotiations result in a 'no deal' Brexit Get the best Sun stories with our daily Sun10 newsletter Your information will be used in accordance with our privacy policy
Not a single public authority predicted the biggest crash in modern history — not the Bank of England, not the ­Treasury, and certainly not the Chancellor of the Exchequer.
Then in 2016 they did it again. Project Fear forecast dramatic downturns in the economy if the people were so unwise as to vote for Brexit. Wrong again.
Since then, we have had record levels of employment, huge investments from the likes of Google, Microsoft, SoftBank and a long list of other companies.
They demonstrated their confidence in the future of this great country in the best way possible — with their money.
This time round the wise insight came from Andy Haldane, the best economist at the Bank of England.
Ruefully he said “economic forecasting is having a Michael Fish moment”.
Michael Fish was the weather forecaster who completely mispredicted the huge 1987 storm that struck Britain.
If only economic forecasters were even as good as weather forecasters, we would be a lot better off. But they are not, and they are at it again.
This week Chancellor Philip Hammond predicted the Treasury would need to raise an extra £80billion in 15 years’ time in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
This from the Treasury that has trouble forecasting deficits even 12 months ahead.
And yet the Chancellor insists on ­trotting out yet another bogus forecast, on the very day that my successor as Brexit Secretary, Dominic Raab, is ­presenting the first set of preparation for no deal.
Coincidence? I do not think so.
The great departments of state are very careful about what they put in the public domain, and exactly when.
For nobody is this more true than the Treasury, which has to judge the public perception of everything it does, if only because of its effect on the markets. So this was either spectacularly incompetent, or deliberate. I know what I think.
It was an attempt to frighten the ­population into imagining the most ­terrible consequences of leaving the European Union without a deal.
And even more disgraceful, by doing so it will undermine the Government’s hand in striking a deal with the EU.
If they do not think we dare walk away, then they will give us the worst deal they can think of. Bear in mind that the Chequers deal already concedes enormous amounts to the EU.
It would not be long before our world-leading position in life sciences, gene technology, artificial intelligence, self-driving cars and a whole range of other modern industries would be being actively undermined by the Europeans.
As for being out of reach of the ­European Court, pull the other one.
But now the Treasury is beginning to fear that even these spectacular concessions the Government has made in the Chequers deal will not deliver agreement from the European Commission — or if it does, the Commons will turn it down.
Dominic Raab says Brexit talks could collapse if the EU doesn’t match our ambition and pragmatism
In that event you can expect attempts by the Remainers in Parliament to try to scupper our departure by delaying it beyond the General Election, or offer some other enormous raft of concessions to give back control of the EU.
This is why we are seeing Project Fear Mark 3, 4 or 5 — I have lost count — ­trying to terrorise the public into ­believing they will be denied food, ­medicines and even their pensions.
Hence the ridiculous suggestion that the Army would be used to move food around the country.
Why? What conceivable aspect of European policy would handicap British hauliers moving British products from Kent to Cumbria?
None of course, but it was just the bogus nonsense some of our Remainer media is only too happy to carry ­completely uncritically.
Similarly, we have heard suggestions of all sorts of shortages, based it seems mostly on the idea that the French might impede the flow of goods between Calais and Dover.
It would not be the first time we had dealt with such issues. We had about 30 days of such delays in 2015. I remember queues of lorries, but I do not remember shortages of food or medicines.
And on other issues, are the Europeans really going to pick a fight on data with the biggest IT power on the continent, on banking are they going to refuse to cooperate with the greatest financial ­centre in the world?
Are the Greeks, Italians and Spaniards going to disadvantage the UK residents on whom many of their local economies depend? Or stop tourism? I think not.
I suspect we are quite likely to have the odd hiccup when we leave the EU, but we will be able to cope, which is what Dominic Raab was demonstrating this week. And any problems we have will be over in months not years.
So in 15 years’ time, far from worrying about Mr Hammond’s £80billion bill, the country will have trouble remembering what all the fuss was about.
The biggest question will be whether we have made the most of the opportunities created by Brexit.
And that is what we should worry about today, creating the circumstances where this great country can take its proper place in the world. We will only be able to do that if we allow ourselves the freedoms a clean Brexit will deliver.
So my advice to all my old colleagues in Cabinet is simple: Ignore the misery merchants of the Treasury, stop fearing things that will never happen, and start planning for the real opportunities that this great country can grasp when it sets its mind to it.
tl;dr: Project fear, brexit great, they need us more than we need them, much like communism if brexit doesn't work it's because it wasn't done properly. Some other delusional nonsense and misrepresentation of economic forecasting.
submitted by chowieuk to ukpolitics [link] [comments]

2018.06.14 08:56 Robert-Q Blockchain & Education: Learning will become more enhanced.

The Blockchain Triad

For many the Blockchain, sometimes generally called Distributed Ledger Technology (DLT), is associated with Bitcoin — decentralised cryptocurrency. However, the type of the Blockchain that is behind Bitcoin represents just the 1st generation of the Blockchain — Blockchain 1.0. Blockchain 1.0 was created specifically to transact hard tangible (financial) value from one party to another eliminating the need for the mediator. 2nd generation of the Blockchain or Blockchain 2.0 became possible with the invention of the Smart Contracts. A Smart Contract is a piece of self-executable code that usually comes with a set of specified conditions, which trigger the execution. Exactly Blockchain 2.0 is the generation that catalysed wide interest to the technology and created fertile ground for various applications. Latest 3rd generation of the Blockchain enables technology users to capture and transact soft intangible (non-financial) value on top of the hard tangible. The latter helps track such intangibles as social impact, values, beliefs, personal experiences, etc. Such intangibles assessing layer is built around Social Earnings Ratio (SER), developed at the Centre for Citizenship, Enterprise and Governance(CCEG). Blockchain 3.0, hence, can capture and transact both financial impact and the non-financial one.

Blockchain 2.0’s application in higher education

More recently even universities, who are traditionally known for being careful with bandwagon-jumping, are starting to openly recognise the benefits the technology has. Besides research to develop and improve the technology, some universities have put Blockchain in practice. While some universities offer courses and degrees in Blockchain and cryptocurrencies, for example the University of Nicosia (Cyprus) and Cumbria University (UK), others like ESMT Berlin (Germany) and The Lucerne University of Applied Sciences and Arts (Switzerland) and the University of Nicosia accept e-currency for tuition fees. There are also those, who experiment with certificates distribution, example being the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (US). These examples follow the global trend since the applications are somehow related to financial services and data management (most prominent examples: cross-border transfers, cryptocurrencies, assets and identity management).
submitted by Robert-Q to btc [link] [comments]

2018.06.10 03:32 Jefftommens The Pendle Hill case (Part 4)

First part
Second part
Third part
Fifth part
Today I saw Jonothan at his home down south. Tomorrow night Petal will be taking me to see the 'Otherworld'. I am afraid, very afraid.
When my day started, I went to see if she was still asleep. She was gone. I locked up the night before, didn't tell her where any keys were. Not out of any malicious machinations but simply because I didn't think to. Yet she was gone.
At this point thinking about shit like this I knew was useless and unproductive so I put the thought of her from my mind and called Jonothan. He picked up so fast it gave me a headache.
“Hello, Jon?'
“I recognise that voice... Is that you detective?'
“Yeah Jon. It's me. I'm gonna tell you something... well actually, maybe it's best we meet in person? It's important and you know coming from me after all these years that I'm not chatting shit.'
“Yeah... yeah of course. Come over. I'll tell you the address.'
It was so seamless, so easy, that I started to ponder his intentions. Maybe like me he'd had lingering curiosities about the case all this time. In fact I wouldn't put it past him, he was far more affected by it than me. His entire life was destroyed by that mess.
So I jumped on the motorway down south-ways. There was no traffic, which by itself was a shock. What's more is... the M6 was practically empty. A few vans here and there, some trucks, but besides that one of the busiest motorways in the UK was just barren. I never realised how different, how lonely, a drive on the motorway could be when you aren't surrounded by people packed in loud beeping vehicles of varying shapes and sizes.
I felt like I was heading toward something I shouldn't have been.
Every step of this journey has been filled with doubt. The next step, the last step. This weren't any different. I arrived at his property at around six o'clock. There was a pair of wooden gates at the front which opened up immediately as soon as I arrived. I didn't even press the buzzer. His driveway and front yard were like Knowsley fucking safari park without the Animals. His house was modern and stylish, not the haunted mansion motif I figured a horror writer would go for.
He was waiting for me near his front door. We shook hands and he had the happiest fucking smile I'd ever layed eyes on. Considering his sombre disposition during our interview all those years ago coupled with the fact he'd lost weight and grown a beard. I could hardly recognise the lad. His voice had no fear in it, no negativity.
We had a brief and friendly exchange. I was happy for him. Hell, I didn't suspect a thing. He invited me in and led me to where he kept his 'art', said we could talk more there.
Inside his house however had a strange vibe to it. His walls, they were all painted red, with black stripes punctuating the pastel colour at random. I thought it might be some modern art-deco choice but the banisters, the staircase, the vases and lamps... it was all Victorian. Maybe older. The far end of the area had a staircase which bisected and led to two walkways attached to the walls. From the walkways flanking the path to the staircase were several marble pillars placed symmetrically. He had some strange sculptures too, strange in that they weren't really artistic. Not even in the strictly modern sense. Most of the things he had on display in thick protective glass were just rocks. The largest one was 6 feet tall and looked like it could've weight three tonnes. I didn't question him about them. Not even when I saw a pillar of rock that had a hole with a skull inside of it.
After I saw the inside of his house, well, I was a little less trusting. This was the kind of ancient shit that I'd been dealing with on the case itself. He should've had nothing to do with that. It only got worse from there.
“So, I figure I'll just tell you know and get it over with and tell you what I came down here to tell you. Petal- a woman calling herself Petal Warwick- came to me last night.' Jonothan didn't react at first, he just kept walking with his back to me. He stopped soon and looked at me with a patronising grin.
“I know.'
“Eh? What do you mean you 'know'? She's been dead for two decades.'
“Apparently not.' At this point, this cryptic shit had gone too far. I wasn't having any of it. He was younger than me, fitter than me, but I've always been a hard man. Pretty quickly I had him against one of his marble pillars, by the throat. I was willing to break something to find some fucking clarity. And I'm not talking about his display cases.
“Now you're going to tell me everything. All the context around Marianne Dyer's death. All the fucked up shit surrounding faeries and elves and … just, everything. Out in the open.' Jonothan nodded. His jaw and neck clenched tight to alleviate the pressure of my grip. I let him go. But I knew any falter in his statement was worthy of a sharp left hook.
“Context...' Before he could continue, I felt a presence behind me. I turned, and to my reinforced shock and disbelief Petal was standing there. “Sweetheart... it's so good your here.' Jonothan spluttered, composing himself.
“I'm sorry I left mister Davidson. I was needed.' Her voice was like silk. Her eyes lacked any fear. Her face was calm and draped on her slender frame was a green silk dress. The shock quickly faded. At this point I didn't give a fuck if there really were fairies teleporting people around. I just wanted the damn truth. Jonothan told me to follow him to his basement. I thought it was a bit dodgy but I knew I could snap his neck and Petal wouldn't be a danger either. The problem was whatever he had in his basement I was quickly descending into.
It smelled like piss and death. The space was well lit. The walls were painted red. It wasn't like the stereotypical dark basement where water dripped from the ceiling and you needed a torch to see anything. It was clean, orderly. But what he kept in order I recognised straight away. I'd seen shit like this plenty of times around the Pendle area, left at mischief scenes, occult rituals, hanging from trees and sat on tables in pubs. Charms, fetishes, totems. Deer antlers attached to walls with red, spongy entrails tied around them. Bowls filled with what looked like urine. Cats turned inside out. And the most disturbing of all, a premature human skull with a rock in its mouth painted and carved with intricate patterns. There was more but you get the point. The whole place was like something out of a nightmare.
I never want to see a place like it. Ever again.
He let me absorb what I was seeing before Petal placed her hands on my shoulders and whispered in my ear. “It's all for him. For the ancient one. We're tasked with remembering him, with... worshipping him.' I jumped, this place made me on edge, and sick to my stomach. I wanted to leave, run, forget all of this and just go off the grid for a while. Then I remembered I didn't have long to live anyway. What would be the point.
“You can be a part of this too detective. Your... vigour, your curiosity, it's powerful. We can use it to our advantage.' The look of elation in Jonothan's eyes took on a whole new shade of darkness.
“And once he... wakes up. What then?'
“Then he'll give us everything we want. He'll give us our lives back.' Petal's voice was soft, elegant. The poor lass had been born into this cult shite. I'd read enough of Dyer's works to understand what she meant however. Their words, this case, it wasn't as cryptic now. I was uncovering the truth. Bit by bit.
“He'll have us remember who we are. Start us on the path to redemption. To spiritual enlightenment.' Jonothan seemed equally infatuated with all this. Both of them were being manipulated, but by who? I still don't know.
“You two are connected... were you in on this when Marianne was at large?' Jonothan shook his head.
“I was just a baby.' Petal spoke up, her voice barely audible.
“You were stabbed six times.' I shouted. Her presence still irked me, she shouldn't have been alive.
“And part of me was used to inhabit Marianne. To bring on the miracle.'
“What fucking Miracle?'
“His miracle. The evidence that our efforts weren't in vain. That he was growing stronger. That he was waking up.' Jonothan paused a moment, his eyes were insane with a thirst for something. “We had successfully invoked him. We used ancient Magick. A practice forgotten for centuries.'
“A practice you were so adept at all those years ago. You were so talented... so in tune.' She was rubbing my shoulders, massaging me, trying to soften me up. They were recruiting me. Maybe they succeeded, I don't know yet.
“You caused that woman's death... you created that abominable child... just to test a theory?' Jonothan's eyes softened. The massage stopped.
“She gave her life for this. Because she knew if it worked, and she did die in turn, that she would have nothing to fear or regret. Because she would serve him again at the height of his power.'
“Why Mary though?'
“Because she and Marianne were... connected. Since the beginning.' I theorised that Marianne and Mary were in communication before her abusive family moved her away from Barley.
“They were in communication?' The two of them laughed.
“You're still very naïve.' That pissed me off to no end, but my anger had died down to such a degree I didn't feel the need to break the cunts jaw.
“So Marianne and Mary were connected from the start. Mary was pre-selected to be the one who... made the sacrifice?'
“Equivalence exchange. You have to give a life to receive a life.'
“Only you didn't get a life, you got a pile of ashes and a baby stabbed to death. Now why don't you make like a fucking poet and start relaying to me how the fuck that woman is standing where she is?' I screamed, pointing at Petal. At this point I had him by the collar. I felt like burning this place to the ground. I'd gone from assuming pure madness, wanting to solve a murder case, to wanting to kill every single person connected to this fucking cult.
“That's what we were getting to. We want you to come with us. To the 'otherworld'.'
And that's where we're up to now. I agreed, and Mary said she'd stop by when she was ready to take me away. She had such a whimsical and excited sparkle in her eye. To the point I wonder what she actually experienced in this Otherworld.
I won't lie to you, I'm a bit excited myself. Though I think it may be the relief of being out that hellscape of a basement still wearing off. I'll probably have a change of heart tomorrow. When I'm home, I should expect a visit from her eh? I hope she doesn't show up naked this time. Last thing I want is word around town I'm sleeping with a girl a third my age.
I'll drive up tomorrow.
Soon, this'll all be over.
UPDATE: I just got a text from Sammy, my mate's son in the forces. It's an essay but here it is.
'Hey Ron. I've got a lot to say mate... first of all, I'm out of a job. Second of all, I found some old files from as far back as the 60s. Third of all, I just saw three hooded men standing outside my house.'
'I got sent West, to the Lancashire Constabulary Headquarters in Preston. Just to do data comparison, draw up some graphs, see which areas need more attention. Typical stuff. I was given full liberty however to look over files relating to cases that happened between 2010 – 2018. In the same archive room were files from way back. I started doing a little bit of digging to see if I could find anything that might interest you and the case your working, but there was nothing special. I found a locked room though- managed to bait a Junior officer in letting me take a look.'
'These things hadn't been touched in years, they were fucking dusty. I had a look through. Marianne Dyer, before she was called that, was called Evelyn Monroe. She was a massive figurehead in the local church scene, and she was in on several money and drug laundering schemes. Using the church as a means of keeping the cash hidden. The source of most of the cash was unknown but it does mention one place. The Kelbrook family. Their conglomerate has most Food production facilities in Northern Europe under their belt. That's just one source and it doesn't even account for a quarter of the revenue these churches were piling up. What's more, I couldn't find anything on where this money was actually going. All I know is that the current Lancashire police commissioner himself only came onto the Job after the last one retired to a fucking massive Estate on the East coast of the United States. Furthermore several major PI's were working the laundering scheme, trying to find an angle, and they all vanished. Turns out they have hefty properties too. She was buying off officials and private eyes left and right. Trying to keep everything from exploding in her face. This is just from information I gathered in the room, looks like one of our predecessors smelled something fishy as well. Wonder where they are now.'
'But that's not even half of it, once she had the entire county under her fucking thumb, she moved onto the drugs. Ketamine, mostly. But also LSD. Strange combinations. The ones used mostly by various Occult youth groups across Lancashire, Yorkshire, and Cumbria. It was only in 1980 that she married Craig and changed her name to Marianne. Then she settled and started her rounds ensuring every other neighbour was some secret idol-worshipping crackhead. It all comes down to her.'
'The question is- how did she convince the Kelbrooks and whatever other investors to give her all the cash? There must be something larger at play. Must be. Evidenced by the fact that as soon as I was caught in the room I wasn't suspended, I wasn't given a warning. They fucking tossed me. And told me I tried to sue for severance or go to the Newspapers they'd put me in Jail for gross Police misconduct. It wasn't some nobody who said that to me either, they brought me into a board room with the commissioner himself. This is all fucked up.'
'Now... the three hooded figures are gone. But I'm scared man. Can you come over? Stay the night? If not I'm dipping. Leaving the house, leaving the district might even jump the county. Man I'm not fucking around with this shit any more it's terrifying.'
'I hope you arrive at the same conclusion.'
I've decided to drive through the night to check on Sammy. This is more fucked up than I could ever imagine.
submitted by Jefftommens to nosleep [link] [comments]